Cook Political Shifts Three Key States Away From Trump As Electoral Map Tightens

AP Photo/Alex Brandon

The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter announced on Thursday that it shifted three key swing states away from former President Donald Trump’s column back to Toss Up now that Kamala Harris is the Democratic Party’s nominee.

In early July, with President Joe Biden atop the ticket, the Cook Political Report moved 5 states away from Biden – including moving Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia from Toss Up to Lean Republican. At the time New Hampshire and Minnesota also move from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat.

Now, with Harris regaining ground in the polls, Cook Political has shifted Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia away from Trump and placed them squarely back in the toss-up column. Notably, Harris can win the White House without winning Pennsylvania if she sweeps those three states and captures Wisconsin and Michigan as well.

“With those moves, we now rate 235 electoral votes as leaning, likely or solid Republican and 226 electoral votes leaning, likely or solid for Democrat. There are 77 electoral votes rated as Toss Up,” wrote Editor-In-Chief Amy Walter of the impact of the change, adding:

Bottom line: Things look a lot better for Democrats today than they did a few weeks ago, but Trump is looking stronger now than he did in 2020. This is a Toss Up.

Cook Political also looked at Harris’s favorability rating and found a marked improvement. “Back in early June, her favorability ratings were underwater by 16 points (37% favorable to 53% unfavorable). Today, they sit at 43% favorable to 49% unfavorable, or -6%. Trump has enjoyed a bit of a favorability bump as well, going from -12 in June, to -8 (43% to 52%) today.”

Walter also summed up the current state of the race, writing, “Unforced errors from both Trump and his vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance have shifted the media spotlight from Biden’s age to Trump’s liabilities. In other words, the presidential contest has moved from one that was Trump’s to lose to a much more competitive contest.”

Read Walter’s full analysis here .