Wisconsin Democrats see path to Assembly majority in Kamalamentum

Buoyed by new districts and a wave of enthusiasm generated by Vice President Kamala Harris’ rise over the past four weeks, Wisconsin Democrats at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago last week were confident they could channel national energy into winning a slew of state legislative races.

For the first time in a decade, Democrats have a shot at winning an Assembly majority in November. Republicans currently hold a 64-34 advantage (the sole vacancy is a safe Democratic seat). They also have a chance to chip away at a 22-seat GOP supermajority in the Senate.

Party leaders are projecting confidence less than three months out from Election Day. Assembly Minority Leader Greta Neubauer, D-Racine, told reporters in Chicago that her party would win a 52-seat Assembly majority in the fall. Senate Minority Leader Dianne Hesselbein, D-Middleton, said Democrats would pick up four Senate seats, bringing their caucus to 15 members — just two shy of a majority.

“I absolutely believe that we can win a small majority,” Gov. Tony Evers, who has grappled with the GOP-controlled Legislature for six years, told Wisconsin Watch on the convention floor.

Flipping 17 Assembly seats is a tall order (15 would give Democrats a majority). While there are a few easy pickups, like a seat in the Racine area where a Democrat is the only candidate, there are only 15 Assembly seats where both parties appear to be competitive, according to an analysis of previous voting patterns. There are five such Senate seats, including one Democratic incumbent.

The Democratic plan to accomplish both goals is rooted in door knocking, Neubauer and Hesselbein told Wisconsin Watch in separate interviews. That effort has been supercharged since Harris took over the top of the ticket from President Joe Biden, who dropped his reelection bid last month after weeks of pressure from fellow Democrats. Neubauer said before the switch it was a challenge to get volunteers to go out in the Racine area, but since then the local Democratic Party office has signed up 100 shifts each weekend.

“People are showing up because they are so excited about the momentum, the hopefulness and the joy of this campaign, the opportunity, and that, of course, is hugely helpful to our folks as well,” Neubauer said.

Democrats’ fundraising advantage in recent years will also help, Neubauer, Hesselbein and Democratic Party of Wisconsin Chair Ben Wikler told Wisconsin Watch.

In previous cycles, “Republicans were able to significantly outspend us, and they were able to define our candidates before we could do that about our own folks,” Neubauer said. “The dynamics have shifted now, and we do have incredible partners in the state party, in the governor and many others who are making sure that we are going to have the resources to communicate about our candidates.”

The money is likely to continue to flow. Wikler told reporters in Chicago that he was proud of the state party’s multimillion-dollar investments in legislative races so far and that his goal “is to raise and invest millions more.” He declined to share specific figures about the state party’s fundraising and spending goals on legislative races this cycle.

“We will not be outcommunicated by the Republicans,” Wikler added. “We will not be outspent by the other side. We’re going to fight with everything we’ve got, and we’re going to organize them everywhere in the state of Wisconsin.”

Democrats’ efforts are also being aided by outside groups, such as the national Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which committed $10 million to supporting legislative candidates across the country. A modest amount of that money has so far been directed toward Wisconsin, but DLCC President Heather Williams told Wisconsin Watch the group is “continuingly making investments in our battleground states,” including Wisconsin, and is “making a large national rally cry” for additional support from donors.

Democratic candidates are feeling the momentum. “I haven’t seen this energy since I’ve gotten into running for office,” Rep. Jodi Emerson, D-Eau Claire, told Wisconsin Watch. “It’s truly amazing. I’m excited about it. It’s great to be on the ticket.”

Emerson said she and her colleagues running in close races plan to focus their campaigns on the issues they hear the most about from voters, which vary depending on where you are in the state, but often include things like abortion rights and health care access.

Republican Party of Wisconsin chair Brian Schimming pushed back on the idea that the current enthusiasm can carry Democrats in November, saying “Democrats know how to burn money and Republicans know how to win votes.”

“If Wisconsin Democrats are counting on a hasty rebrand to distract voters from the impact of record inflation and skyrocketing rent, they are both delusional and hopelessly out of touch with the concerns of working families,” Schimming said in a statement to Wisconsin Watch.

“Voters have consistently rejected left-wing extremism and embraced common sense conservative leadership in the State Assembly and Senate,” he added. “We are confident that trend will continue this November.”

Forward is a look at the week in Wisconsin government and politics from the Wisconsin Watch statehouse team.

Wisconsin Democrats see path to Assembly majority in Kamalamentum is a post from Wisconsin Watch , a non-profit investigative news site covering Wisconsin since 2009. Please consider making a contribution to support our journalism.