Ryan Tropical Update 10/1

INDIANAPOLIS (WISH) — Recovery from Helene was ongoing Tuesday for the Southeast.

Now, the attention in the tropics has turned to a disorganized area of showers in the western Caribbean.

Disturbance in the western Caribbean

A 40% chance of tropical development in the next seven days has been assigned Tuesday a tropical wave in the western Caribbean. Model guidance has suggested the weaker storm will enter the Gulf of Mexico later this week and into the weekend.

From there, the track is tough to pin down until an organized center of the storm develops. Anywhere along the Gulf Coast should monitor the system, even if it does not develop, for its ability to be a decent rainmaker. Leslie is the next named storm on the list, but that name will probably be assigned to a wave just off Africa on Tuesday.

Other storms in the Atlantic

Isaac and Joyce have both dissipated in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. Tropical Storm Kirk has been forecasted to become a major hurricane later this week but to remain nowhere near any land mass.

Behind Kirk, a tropical wave just off Africa has a high probability of tropical development.

The average peak of hurricane season has passed. However, October is still typically an active month in the hurricane calendar.

You can find more tropical updates by visiting our weather stories page here .