Fall weather outlook for CSRA

The recent bout of fall-like air has many of us in the CSRA wondering what the upcoming season has in store. Let’s take a closer look at what we might expect.

What’s typical for fall in the CSRA

To get a better grasp of our overall climate, let’s break down the season by month, looking at the average conditions between 1991 and 2020.

• September : We kick off fall on September 1st with an average high of 91 degrees and an average low of 69. This is typically our wettest month, averaging 3.60″ of rain.
• October : The average high cools to 84 degrees, with an average low of 60. Rainfall decreases to an average of 2.55″.
• November : Highs continue to drop, averaging 74 degrees at the start of the month and cooling to 65 by the end. Lows dip to an average of 46 degrees early in November, reaching 39 by month’s end. We see a slight increase in rainfall compared to October, averaging 2.66″.

Atmospheric factors at play this year

To forecast the upcoming season, we need to consider large-scale atmospheric patterns. We’re currently in an ENSO-neutral phase, but there’s a 66% chance of a weak La Niña developing this fall, according to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). This could impact our temperatures and precipitation, but its influence might be less pronounced than a stronger La Niña.

It’s also important to note that we’re in the midst of what will likely be an active Atlantic hurricane season. While the direct impacts of hurricanes are difficult to predict this far in advance, they have the potential to disrupt the typical fall weather patterns, bringing increased rainfall and the possibility of cooler temperatures, depending on their tracks and intensity.

Climate prediction center’s thinking

The CPC’s fall outlook released on August 15th suggests a 40 to 50% chance of above-average temperatures and a 33 to 40% chance of above-average precipitation in the CSRA.

What the models are showing

European Model (ECMWF): The ECMWF model also predicts warmer than average temperatures (~60%), driven by high pressure bringing warm air. This high pressure is likely to result in near to slightly below-average precipitation.

My take on the fall outlook

I’m leaning towards the European model’s prediction of a warmer than average fall with near to slightly below-average precipitation. However, if tropical systems impact our region, that could result in above-average precipitation.

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