TN researchers work on new model to improve flood predictions

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) – It’s been three years since historic flash flooding claimed the lives of 20 people in Waverly.

The severe weather event on Aug. 21, 2021 caught many residents off-guard. The abruptness with which 17 inches of rain poured into Waverly in just 24 hours led researchers with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to explore better ways to get a heads-up for when severe flooding may be coming.

The research institution determined, unfortunately, Waverly was unprepared.

“We have been studying extreme events for a long while, so when we see this, I think what we certainly want to know is ‘how come this is so unexpected?'” said Dr. Shih-Chieh Kao, an ORNL researcher.

According to the National Weather Service, the flooding in Humphreys County is the deadliest flood event in Middle Tennessee and the second deadliest in state history.

Some witnesses described the rushing water that day as tsunami-like. There was widespread damage to homes and businesses and rescue crews were deployed to save those trapped in the high waters.

The ORNL’s study tested a new flood modeling framework that can simulate the entire event and translate precipitation to inundation.

“We recognize there’s no perfect forecast,” Keo said. “We will be looking at how uncertain it will be able to do more simulation and do it quicker, so that, hopefully, it will provide the community a broader way, a broader range of forecasting that this is an upcoming event, this is a worst-case condition and maybe it will affect you.”

Researchers said flood forecasting and prediction are of the utmost importance for timely flood warnings, emergency preparedness, flood mitigation and resiliency.

“Our mission is to come up with a tool and try to provide the data to the decision maker,” Kao said. “We need to find a way to release information to local and state government or the community so that they are educated on how to use that type of data. We certainly want to figure out a way to help our neighbors.”

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On Aug. 24, Gov. Bill Lee will join Sen. Kerry Roberts (R-Springfield) for a candlelight vigil and memorial dedication for the 20 victims of the 2021 flood. It’s scheduled to begin at 7 p.m. at 506 E. Main Street, Waverly, TN, next to the former Waverly Junior High School.

Before the vigil on Saturday, Roberts will continue his tradition of biking 100 miles from his home in Springfield to the Humphreys County courthouse in honor of those who lost their lives.

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