Winter weather outlook: more questions than answers

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) — The meteorologists at The Climate Prediction Center released their Winter Weather Outlook for the months of December, January, and February.

For our part of the country, they are forecasting temperatures to be “leaning above” normal and there are equal chances for above- or below-normal precipitation.

The winter forecasts are largely based on whether an El Niño or La Niña is taking place in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño is a warm water pattern in the Pacific, while La Niña is just the opposite. They are both parts of what is called the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Meteorologists have learned that when there is a strong El Niño or La Niña, there are fairly predictable patterns in the weather downstream across North America. They have said that Middle Tennessee is currently “ENSO neutral,” but the area is in the process of transforming to a La Niña, which should begin later this fall or winter.

However, forecasters have said that it would be a weak La Niña. Matt Reagan with the National Weather Service in Nashville explained how that makes things more difficult.

“Not every season is predicted with the same confidence, Reagan said. “In this case, it is a weak La Niña. So, we can’t be quite as confident as far as the local effects here in Middle Tennessee.”

“With La Niña in the past, what we’ve seen is a warmer than normal winter overall.  That does not mean you cannot get cold periods during that winter, or we cannot get snow.  But overall a warmer than average winter would be expected.  In this case this is a weaker La Niña, so our confidence in that forecast is not as high.”

Reagan also pointed out a typical La Niña’s effect on severe weather.

“When it comes to La Niña winters, we look at an earlier and more active severe weather season,” Reagan pointed out. “So, instead of severe weather occurring more in the April and May timeframe, it may be more towards the beginning of the year, January through March.”

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