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Talking the Tropics With Mike: Tropical storm WARNING for the big island of Hawaii

By Mike Buresh,

1 day ago

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Tropics threats for Jacksonville/NE Florida/SE Georgia: None.

The Atlantic Basin Overview:

Multiple tropical waves extend from the Caribbean & the coast of Africa & may have some long term potential to slowly develop while moving westward across the Atlantic Basin. Right now most forecast models show little significant development through the end of August as there is a good deal of dry mid & upper level air, but it’s something to watch - especially the first couple of weeks of September. The GFS model has shown occasional development but lacks consistency in the longer range - something not at all surprising given the long range. Keep in mind that the vast majority - more than three-quarters - of all tropical waves coming off of Africa do * not * develop into a tropical cyclone. And keep in mind that warm water alone is not the only necessary ingredient for tropical cyclones.

... And a surface trough remains stretched out across the SW Atlantic, Florida & Central/Eastern Gulf. This can sometimes be a breeding ground for tropical mischief if t’storms clusters develop & manage to maintain themselves. Nothing indicated for now but an area that bears watching.

There is also a piece of a 500mb (upper level) trough that is peeling to the west over the Northern Gulf which *could* help spawn surface low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico though - again - forecast models not latching on to much for the moment. However, there are a few more t’storms in the vicinity of the upper low.

And a weak tropical wave is moving into the Eastern Caribbean while turning more northwest - this could be something that might try to interact with the trough next week.

REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.

Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage might occur.

The upper oceanic heat content (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean is unseasonably high for this time of year:

Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):

August tropical cyclone origins (early season breeding grounds are the Gulf &/or Western Caribbean:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for August (1 hurricane so far, 3 tropical storms):

Wind shear (red - strong shear; green - low shear):

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa driven by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air = yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that *can* interfere with the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the dust plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable (we’ve already seen this with Beryl & Debby this year). In my personal opinion, there is way too much “hoopla” about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.

2024 names..... “Francine” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18 (the last time this year’s list was used)... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous because of the ‘04 season when Charley, Frances, Jeanne & Ivan - all retired names - hit Florida within a matter of about 6 weeks. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The colors will brighten greatly as the water warms to greater depths deeper into the season:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48, 72 & 96 hours respectively:

East & Central Pacific:

A Tropical Storm WARNING: Hawaii County

“Hone” has developed over the Central Pacific & will move just south of the big island of Hawaii Sat. night through Sunday. While the core of the storm is forecast to stay south of the Hawaii island chain, squalls of heavy rain & gusty winds + rough seas & surf will impact many of the islands through the weekend:

“Gilma” will gradually weaken while slowly gaining latitude as the tropical cyclone turns more northwest likely keeping the system a fair distance northeast of Hawaii when quite weak late in the upcoming week: