The Center of Tropical Storm “Hone” Will Pass Just South of Hawaii

Friday Update (8/23) – The center of Tropical Storm “Hone” is going to pass just south of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend. The main effects on Hawaii will be gusty winds, a chance of showers and higher than usual surf.

Here’s the forecast track for Tropical Storm Hone. The most significant effects will be felt on the Big Island (the island farthest south).

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Big Island of Hawaii . Here’s the latest forecast discussion on Hone from the National Hurricane Center and the Forecast Advisory .

Here’s the latest forecast discussion from the Honolulu National Weather Service , current weather observations in Hawaii and a Hawaii map of weather observations .

Here’s the estimated time of the strongest winds over the islands.

Here’s the probability of Tropical Storm force winds (highest on the Big Island of Hawaii.

Satellite pic. of the entire U.S.

No tropical storms or hurricanes are expected over the next week, bringing us close to the end of the month without an additional storms. The peak (middle) of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is September 10th.

Tropical Storm “Gilma” has formed in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Gilma will drift to the west northwest over the next week and is no threat to any land areas at this time. There are two other areas of potential development in the eastern Pacific. The red X to the left of Gilma has a 90% chance of developing into a named depression or storm. The X to the right of Gilma has a 60% chance of development in the next week.

In the eastern Pacific, we have hurricane Gilma – and the red X to the right of Gilma will become Tropical Storm (and then hurricane) Hector. These storms are no threat to land at this time.

Here’s the Eastern Pacific Tropical Discussion in English and in Spanish .

Here’s a summary of tropical storm and hurricane activity in the eastern Pacific so far this year .

Here’s a satellite view of the western Pacific and Indian Oceans. Tropical Storm Shanshan is heading toward Japan.

It’ll be either a strong tropical storm or a relatively weak hurricane and it will bring the threat of damaging wind and flooding rains to the island of Honshu.

Here’s the latest ACE Index – a measure of the number and strength of tropical storms and hurricanes. In the North Atlantic Sector, we have a current ACE Index of 55.1. That compares to an average ACE-to-date of 21.1 So, that’s 244% of average ACE-to-date. Of that 51.1 ACE, 35.1 of that came from long-lived hurricane Beryl. Two other named storms, Alberto and Chris were much smaller and short-lived and then we had “Debby”, which was a Category 1 storm and “Ernesto” that gave 84 mph winds to the island of Bermuda.

All other global sectors have well below ACE-to-date figures.

It was the quietest start ever for the eastern Pacific. However, that sector became a bit more active over the last two weeks. The ACE in the eastern Pacific sector is currently at just 25.0. Average-to-date ACE for this sector is 66.8, so that’s still just 39% of average ACE-to-date.

The Western Pacific Ocean Sector has an ACE-to-date of 46.4 , compared to an average ACE-to-date of 110.9. This is just 42% of average ACE-to-date.

The North Indian Ocean has an ACE-to-date of 1.7, again well below the average ACE-to-date of 9.5.

If you take the entire globe, you get a current ACE-to-date of 128.2. That compares to an average ACE-to-date of 209.1 and that’s just 61% of average ACE-to-date.

Keep coming back to the blog for tropical updates.

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