Report: Worcester is cutting carbon emissions, but more must be done

WORCESTER ― A preliminary report indicates Worcester is making progress to cut greenhouse gas emissions that warm the planet, but there’s more work to do.

The city reduced emissions by 9.5% over a 14-year period from 2009 to 2023, according to consultant Blue Strike Environmental .

That figure is higher than the 8.2% cited by Blue Strike when it presented its report last week to the city’s Green Worcester Advisory Committee. Number crunching accounted for the adjustment, said Daianne Starr, data and climate scientist at Blue Strike.

The report's final results should arrive in a few weeks, said John Odell, the city's chief sustainability officer.

It’s not the report’s only revision. Blue Strike estimate Worcester is on track to cut its emissions by 23.5% citywide by 2045, compared to 2009 levels. Last week, Blue Strike put the percentage at 22.4%.

The higher percentage should be achieved if Worcester does nothing more than it’s doing now, said Starr. Programs to cut emissions are evolving, so Starr said Worcester’s emissions should greatly exceed 23.5% by 2045.

That year is noteworthy, because the city’s Green Worcester Plan , unanimously approved by the City Council three years ago, includes a goal of reaching 100% renewable energy in all sectors citywide, including heating and transportation, by 2045.

Odell believes the city's goal of achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2045 is attainable because of expanding energy-efficiency programs. There is also continuing work to increase renewable sources that power the energy grid to reduce emissions.

“We think we have a realistic shot to achieve our net zero goal we’ve set for ourselves in 2045,” said Odell.

Additional emissions reductions cited in the report from 2009 to 2023 include 19.9% in municipal operations, 17.3% in residential emissions, 13.4% in commercial emissions and 28.8% in other energy emissions. The last category includes so-called fugitive gas emissions, defined by Blue Strike as methane emissions during extraction, transportation, distribution and combustion of natural gas within and outside a community's boundaries.

Report cites challenges: vehicle emissions

Several areas in the report note increased emissions from 2009 to 2023. A major source comes from cars and trucks on Worcester's roads that hiked carbon emissions 23.7% since 2009 (409,105 metric tons of carbon dioxide) to 2023 (506,064 metric tons).

The increase is a common pattern in many U.S. cities, said Starr. However, she said there are ways to get gas-guzzlers off the streets, including tax breaks to entice people to buy electric and hybrid cars. The city could also partner with employers to create shuttle services for employees so they're not relying on cars to get to work.

Another factor contributing to more vehicle emissions is the city’s growing population – it climbed from 181,000 in 2010 to 207,000 in 2023, based on U.S. Census numbers. More people means more cars, and much of the responsibility to cut emissions falls on policies developed by state and federal governments, said Odell.

However, the city has a role to play to develop a local transportation grid to accommodate bicycles, pedestrians, eclectic scooters and public transpiration so residents aren't solely reliant on cars to get around.

“We have some influence, and we’re working with the Department of Transportation and Mobility to expand options as we move forward,” said Odell.

Other notable gains in greenhouse gas emissions from 2009 to 2023 include propane use by residential properties that jumped 62.5%. However, Starr said the figure is misleading because those emissions account for only 1% of total emissions citywide.

Time for more education

In addition, fuel oil used by residential properties swelled 27.2%, and natural gas in the commercial property sector surged 35.6%. Odell believes it will take more public education to tout the benefits, both economically and environmentally, of switching from fossil-fuel based systems to ones that run on electricity.

Now is a good time to switch from oil, said Odell, because prices are higher than electricity for heat and hot water. Leaving natural gas is a tougher sell, he said, because it’s cheaper than both oil and high-efficiency heat pumps that run on electricity.

“We’ve got to figure out ways to get electricity prices down so they’re more competitive,” said Odell.

Another category of rising emissions is solid waste generated by commercial properties. It swelled 11.3% in Worcester from 2009 to 2023. Massachusetts has banned the disposal of most textiles since Nov. 1, 2022, because they release carbon emissions at incinerators and harmful methane when dumped in landfills.

Worcester is reviewing bids from companies to help the city develop a zero waste master plan to tackle solid waste disposal, said Odell. It could take more than a year before the plan is finished.

Municipal aggregation: a plus for Worcester

Worcester's last inventory of greenhouse gas emissions in 2022 that covered a 10-year period from 2009-2019 didn't include the electricity aggregation program, because it started after the inventory was done.

Aggregation is buying energy in bulk to achieve lower prices for homes and businesses. Worcester has a contract with Houston-based Direct Energy to make the bulk purchases.

Worcester’s commitment to municipal aggregation is a plus, said Starr, because it cuts carbon emissions. In 2021, aggregation cut residential property emissions in Worcester by 36.3% compared to 2009 levels, according to Blue Strike. Also in 2021, citywide electricity use dropped by only 1.4%, said Starr. She believes the relationship likely means renewables, including wind and solar, represent a bigger source of the city's electricity.

Meanwhile, the number of homes and businesses in Worcester participating in aggregation declined due to market forces, said Odell. Some customers switched to cheaper third-party suppliers when energy prices shot up due to the war in Ukraine and lingering economic impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Prices have since fallen, and Odell said that’s reflected in Worcester’s new two-year contract with Direct Energy. Prices are $16.31 and $17.73 cents per kilowatt hour, depending on one of two plans customers choose. One plan has 40% renewable energy sources, the other 100%.

Lower prices are bringing customers back to aggregation, said Odell, and the city plans to roll out a more aggressive pitch to customers in the fall to boost enrollment. Roughly half of the city’s residential customers are enrolled in aggregation, 15% to 20% get their electricity from National Grid’s basic service plan, and private third-party competitors account for the rest, roughly 25%.

Positive direction

As Odell sees it, Blue Strike's report shows Worcester is making real progress, but to reach the city’s target of net zero emissions by 2045, there’s much work to do.

"We are headed in the right direction, and we will continue to do that. That's the good news," said Odell. "The bad news is we need to do a lot more to reach our goals."

Starr sees Worcester's desire to have reliable data to understand its greenhouse gas emissions, so it can work with the community to reduce them.

“Worcester is very technical, and it wants to understand the numbers we present,” said Starr. “They know the community has to believe in the numbers. I see the beginning of the first step of a community really invested in doing positive changes.”

Contact Henry Schwan at henry.schwan@telegram.com . Follow him on X: @henrytelegram .

This article originally appeared on Telegram & Gazette: Report: Worcester is cutting carbon emissions, but more must be done