Winter Weather Outlook across Ohio, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania

WHEELING, W.Va. (WTRF) – NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and the StormTracker7 Weather Team have come to fruition on the Winter Outlook for the upcoming months in regards to temperature and precipitation trends, along with the expected changes from the drought conditions.

EL NINO VS. LA NINA?

While many factors are taken into consideration when making a seasonal forecast one of the main influencers on the winter forecast is whether or not El Nino or La Nina conditions are expected to develop. El Nino conditions occur when the surface waters of the Equatorial Pacific turn warmer than normal. La Nina is the opposite of El Nino and is characterized by a cooling of the waters in the Equatorial Pacific. Both can impact our weather closer to home.

La Nina conditions are expected to develop late in the fall. This typically leads to a more northerly storm track which would lead to warmer and drier conditions in the Southern United States and cooler and wetter condition in the Northern U.S.

Temperature Outlook

The seasonal temperature outlook during a La Nina event tends to favor slightly above average temperatures in the Ohio Valley. The current temperature forecast for the upcoming winter is leaning towards above average conditions.

Precipitation Outlook

During a La Nina event the storm track tends to get pushed northward. This typically leads to wetter than average conditions in the north and drought in the south. The current precipitation forecast for the upcoming winter is leaning towards above average precipitation in the far northern portion of our viewing area with no major climatological factors pointing either way for the rest of it.

Drought Conditions Moving Forward

This isn’t the best of news for our ongoing drought. A wetter winter would help recharge the groundwater supply. Having said that, a return to average monthly precipitation would be a welcome sight; June, July, August, and September all saw precipitation totals that were well below average.

And even though the forecast is leaning towards a slightly warmer winter with average precipitation it only takes a few events to make for a memorable winter. We’ll keep you posted on all of the changes that Ohio Valley weather brings in the coming months.

For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to WTRF.