All Rain isn’t Good Rain: Flood risks & isolated severe thunderstorms arrive Tuesday

Tuesday a warm front lifts north for our morning hours with a few isolated light showers. Otherwise, it’s a partly cloudy start with very humid air for all. We’ll see pockets of sunshine which helps burn off the morning fog, but it also adds energy into our unstable atmosphere. As temps push closer to the 80 degree mark, pop-up downpours and isolated thunderstorms begin to roam just before noon. Not all will see these “popcorn variety” scattered storms, but it’s a sign of things to come.

If we’re lucky enough to see enough of these pop-up storms from 12-2pm, they will steal energy from the atmosphere before a cold front arrives this evening. This will result in a lower severe weather threat for our region. However, given this is not a guarantee, our soupy airmass will be utilized by the evening cold front to form a line of thunderstorms expected to move across the region west to east from 5pm to 9pm this evening.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds will be the top concern along with flash flooding risks with 1-2 inches of rain expected. More under thunderstorms for some locations. While our tornado risk is low, it isn’t zero making Tuesday a good day to stay weather aware.

The good news is our severe weather threat isn’t widespread but the risk of troublesome travel for the evening commute should be enough to check our interactive radar before heading home this evening. Once the front crosses and storms push east, we’ll quiet down for a few hours with scattered storms fading to general isolated showers for the overnight. A very damp, mild, and humid night ahead as temps stay in the 60s through Wednesday morning.

Wednesday, Gulf moisture continues to ride north with scattered showers and afternoon thunderstorms coming with it. Waves of rain and storms with a few breaks between will keep the sunshine a bay and temps struggling into the mid and upper 70s. It’ll feel warmer with the oppressive humidity giving us a taste of the summer we didn’t have.

Severe weather is not expected but any thunderstorm that rolls through could bring heavy rain leading to localized runoff and road pooling issues. Clogged drains will be the key to those issues. Showers fade some into the overnight with a general clearing trend into Thursday morning.

Thursday we catch a small break in the widespread rain and storms with a mostly dry day. A few showers and afternoon pop-up storms can’t be ruled out with the high humidity of the day. Tropical humidity begins to filter in make the day difficult for those with sensitive breathing issues. Heat indexes will be much higher than the mid and upper 70s the thermometers read. All eyes will be on “Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine” as it gains strength just before landfall in Florida. We’ll be watching for its track after landfall for impacts to our region Friday into Saturday.

Friday, remnants of what will be Helene will push north bringing tropical humidity, clouds, and rain. It’s the rain that will be concerning as our dry & compact ground will be susceptible to flooding. After months in drought, our grounds can’t just soak up the rain and most of the heavy rain will simply run off. While rain is great for our area, slow steady showers is what we’ll need. Either way, our rivers will benefit from a good washing as with them being so low this year, we won’t have to worry about river floods. Mainly flash flooding over roadways.

As the storms works northwest, we’ll be on the windier side of the area of low pressure with winds 10-20mph at times gusting 25-35mph on the ridgelines, especially across our southern state line counties. Localized power outages are possible along with downed trees. Wet leaves from the blowing winds will cause driving issues as wet leaves are just as slick as ice. It’ll be a good day not to be in a hurry. Showers and storms continue into the night with some locations picking up 2-3 inches of rain.

Saturday as the area of low pressure drifts west the storm itself begins to break up. Showers will be scattered in nature as temps push into the mid 70s. Breezy conditions throughout the region but rain will be more selective in scattered waves. Many of us will see several dry hours under mostly cloudy skies with only a few peeks of sunshine.

Sunday the remnant low still churns in the Midwest keeping clouds around. Humidity levels still running high make the mid 70s feel sticky and uncomfortable. A passing shower here or there is possible, but several dry hours. Winds begin to relax through the day as look ahead to what’s next.

Monday our normal weather patter beings to take over pushing an area of low pressure westward with a few showers throughout the day. Several dry hours but outdoor plans will be interrupted for brief spells through the day. Highs nudge the upper 70s as a few hours of sunshine can be expected. A rumble of thunder in the afternoon as a result but most will be quick in nature and fade shortly after sunset.

In your extended forecast, as we balance out after the tropical interruption, we’ll have a few days with scattered showers in the mix before drying out heading into the first week of October. With several fall festivals just around the corner, it’ll be a nice break but remember, we are still in dire shape with our drought. It’ll take more than just a few days of rain to correct a dry pattern that’s been with us for the last 6 months. Either way, enjoy the breaks as we get them as we say hello to the spooky month!

TUESDAY
Lights AM showers, sct. t-storms midday, line of strong storms PM. Highs in the near 80.
WEDNESDAY
Soggy day, sct. showers and PM rumbles. Highs in the upper 70s. Humid!
THURSDAY
More dry time than not, sct. shower at times. Highs in the muggy mid 70s.
FRIDAY
Tropical moisture, windy, sct. t-storms. Highs in the mid 70s.
SATURDAY
Breezy, some dry time, PM sct. showers. Highs in the low 70s.
SUNDAY
Sct. shower at times, mostly dry day. Highs in the low 70s.
MONDAY
Passing shower, sun & clouds. Highs in the low 70s.
TUESDAY
Mostly dry day, some PM showers likely. Highs in the mid 70s.
WEDNESDAY
AM sprinkles, slow clearing. Highs in the upper 70s.
THURSDAY
Sunshine returns, bit humid. Highs in the upper 70s.
FRIDAY
Sunny, mild. Highs in the upper 70s.

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