Deloitte Predicts Slow Increase to Holiday Sales

Unsurprisingly, e-commerce will play a large role in holiday sales this upcoming season, according to Deloitte’s latest holiday prediction report — a prediction that is similar to other predictions for the season as reported by WWD.

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Ahead of the season, Deloitte’s team said they expect holiday retail sales to increase between 2.3 percent and 3.3 percent in 2024, with e-commerce forecasted to grow between 7 and 9 percent year-over-year.

“Following a sharp rise in spending post-pandemic, this season’s retail sales are expected to moderately increase in line with trends over the past decade,” said Michael Jeschke, principal at Deloitte Consulting LLP and Retail and Consumer Products leader at Deloitte. “Our forecast indicates that e-commerce sales will remain strong as consumers continue to take advantage of online deals to maximize their spending.”

This expectation sees retail and consumer products to total $1.58 trillion to $1.59 trillion (with e-commerce seeing growth of between $289 billion and $294 billion) during the November to January timeline, specifically. Notably, Deloitte’s predictions in 2023 expected to see a 3.5 to 4.6 percent increase during the same months.

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Acknowledging that the pace of increase for holiday sales will be slower this year compared to last, Akrur Barua, economist at Deloitte Insights, said the company does “expect that healthy growth in disposable personal income, combined with a steady labor market, will support a solid holiday sales season.”

And moreover, Barua said, inflation will be both a headwind and tailwind to holiday sales. “While declining inflation aids consumers’ purchasing power, it also is expected to negatively impact the nominal rise in the dollar value of sales.” Rising credit card debt and consumers seeing an edit to pandemic-era savings “will likely weigh on sales growth this season compared to the previous one.”

Jeschke added that “while this holiday season reflects a return to trend levels of growth, retailers who focus on building loyalty and trust with consumers could be well positioned for success.”

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