Future Tropical Storm Francine's track shifts closer to New Orleans

The track of the soon-to-be Tropical Storm Francine has shifted farther to the east, putting New Orleans on the eastern edge of the National Hurricane Center's cone of uncertainty.

As of the NHC's 4 a.m. CDT update, Potential Tropical Cyclone Six still does not have a well-defined center of circulation. That's why the NHC has not declared the system a tropical storm, despite the system having maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour. Forecasters predict that the system's circulation will become defined late Monday morning or early Monday afternoon, at which time the system will be named Tropical Storm Francine.

Forecasters predict Francine will become a hurricane during the day Tuesday. Right now, the NHC is forecasting Francine to make landfall near Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge along the Cameron/Vermilion Parish line as a strong Category 1 storm before cutting northeastward through Louisiana. However, WWL-TV's Payton Malone says some models show the storm rapidly intensifying into either a Category 2 or Category 3 storm and making landfall farther east in coastal St. Mary Parish. If those forecasts come true, New Orleans and the Bayou Parishes would see heavier rain, winds, and storm surge.

"Since the center is still not well defined, the initial motion is a rather uncertain, but slow . . . " NHC forecasters said in their 4 a.m. online discussion. "Since the system is still not very well-organized and lacks an inner core structure, only slow strengthening is expected through this morning. However, the disturbance is expected to soon become better organized while remaining over very warm waters, with high low- to mid-tropospheric humidity, and low vertical shear for the next 48 hours.  Therefore steady strengthening is likely to begin by later today."

Regardless of landfall, the National Hurricane Center says the majority of Louisiana is at a moderate risk--at least 40 percent--of experiencing flash flooding. Forecasters likely will post warnings for the Louisiana Gulf Coast during the day Monday.

"Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be issued for a portion of that area later today, and residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place," NHC forecasters said in their discussion. "Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash flooding along the coast of far northeast Mexico, portions of southernmost Texas, southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning.  A risk of flash and urban flooding exists across portions of the Mid-South from Wednesday into Friday morning."