Hurricane warning extended to Grand Isle; New Orleans under tropical storm warning

Grand Isle and other parts of the southeast Louisiana coast are now under hurricane warnings, which could signal an eastward job in the National Hurricane Center's official track when the agency releases its updated forecast later this morning.

As of the 7 a.m. CDT update, hurricane warnings are posted from Sabine Pass to Grand Isle. A tropical storm warning is in effect from Grand Isle to the mouth of the Pearl River, including metropolitan New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas.

According to the NHC, Tropical Storm Francine's maximum sustained winds remain at 65 miles per hour. The system is moving due north at five miles per hour and is located about 395 miles south-southwest of Cameron.

The NHC's official forecast track still calls for Francine's eye to make landfall near Marsh Island before cutting between Lafayette and New Iberia and pushing northeastward into the Atchafalaya Basin, missing Baton Rouge by about 25 to 30 miles to the west. Coastal areas along Vermilion Bay and its associated waterways could see between five to 10 feet of storm surge. Other parts of the south Louisiana could see between 6 to 12 inches of rain as the storm makes its way across the state.

Although Francine is forecast to make landfall as either a Category 1 or 2 storm, NHC forecasters say Francine has been slow to develop.

"Francine has not become appreciably better organized overnight," forecasters wrote in their 4 a.m. discussion. "There is a large cluster of cold-topped convection located well to the northeast of the center, but the central deep convection is still not very strong.  Some banding features appear to be developing over the northeastern portion of the circulation."

However, forecasters note that the warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico could help Francine strengthen during the day today.

"The tropical cyclone should be over very warm waters before landfall, although west-southwesterly vertical wind shear over the system is likely to increase," NHC forecasters said in their discussion. "The latter environmental influence will probably limit Francine's strengthening.  Nonetheless, the SHIPS-RI Index shows a significant probability of at least a 25-kt increase in maximum winds during the next 24 hours.  The official intensity forecast is now at the high end of the model guidance."