What kind of winter is expected in Massachusetts

CHICOPEE, Mass. (WWLP) – With the flip of the calendar into October, it’s getting closer to the winter months.

As the leaves start to change and the days continue to get shorter, it is only a matter of time before cold temperatures and snow are in the forecast. While fall just started, winter is on the minds of many as it is now only 78 days till the winter solstice which starts on December 21st.

When looking at a winter outlook, one of the first things meteorologists pay attention to is the ENSO region down in the central Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America. ENSO stands for El Nino Southern Oscillation.

What is a La Nina Winter

When talking about winter you probably hear the terms El Nino and La Nina a lot. These are climate setups that occur in the eastern Pacific, and constantly switch back and forth. El Nino is when you have warm waters in the equatorial Pacific while La Nina is cool waters in the equatorial Pacific. This year we will have a La Nina phase.

Now even though this is far away in the Pacific Ocean, it plays a big role on the jet stream here over North America. In a La Nina winter, the typical setup is a weaker polar jet stream that can dip further south into the United States and a stronger or more active Pacific jet stream that can bring more moisture into the lower 48 states of the USA.

Typically, this means more wet and active weather in the northeastern and northwestern half of the country and dry and warm weather in the southern half of the country.

When it comes to La Nina impacts in the Northeast, this usually means variable temperatures of cold and warm spells throughout the winter, the potential for more storms with that active Pacific jet stream, and a better chance for arctic outbreaks with the weaker Arctic jet stream.

The winter pattern can also come down to whether it is a strong or weak La Nina. This winter, it is leaning more towards a weaker La Nina.

In an early outlook by NOAA, the temperature outlook for December, January, and February leans towards above-average temperatures in the southern and eastern half of the country and that includes western Massachusetts.

Meanwhile, out west in the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies, they lean towards below-average temperatures. When it comes to precipitation for December, January, and February, NOAA leans more towards above-average precipitation for the northern and eastern half of the country with below-average precipitation for the southern half of the county.

This includes above-average precipitation for western Massachusetts. Now this does not mean all precipitation will be snow, it can be rain, sleet, snow, or a mix of everything. It just highlights the chance of seeing a more active pattern this winter with a higher risk of storms.

This is an early outlook for winter, but it is never too early to start preparing.

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