MLB home run props for Thu. 8/15: Marcus down for a homer

We were unable to cash a home run prop on Wednesday night in our return to action, but we're feeling good about our chances on Thursday night. Let's break down the three HR bets we're targeting for the MLB slate.

Jackson Holliday (+800 DraftKings )

Red Sox at Orioles, 6:35 p.m. ET

You won't be impressed by Holliday if you take a glance at his raw statistics, but he's swinging the bat much better than his .173 batting average and .370 slugging percentage suggest. The Baltimore Orioles rookie has an impressive 57.9 percent hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this month. He's also crushing fastballs to the tune of a .638 xSLG and a 78.9 percent hard-hit rate. Well, Boston Red Sox righty Nick Pivetta throws his 4-seam fastball 47.9 percent of the time. This is a great matchup for Holliday.

Weston Wilson (+400 FanDuel )

Nationals at Phillies, 6:40 p.m. ET

You might not know the name Weston Wilson unless you're a Philadelphia Phillies fan, but the team uses him as a secret weapon against left-handed pitching. Wilson is batting .467 and slugging .933 with a 66.7 percent hard-hit rate against lefties in limited action this season. Washington Nationals southpaw Mitchell Parker is giving up an 8.1 percent barrel rate this year party due to his high fastball rate (49.5 percent), giving Wilson a good chance to jump on one.

Marcus Semien (+520 FD )

Twins at Rangers, 8:05 p.m. ET

This pick is all about the matchup. Semien is batting just .188 with two home runs over the last 15 days, but he could get back on track against Minnesota Twins starter Bailey Ober. In 10 career plate appearances against Ober, Semien is batting .556 and slugging 1.333 with two homers and a double. Semien is one of the best fastball hitters on the Texas Rangers, and Ober throws his fastball much more often than any other pitch.