Premier League Game of the Week: Chelsea, Man City and the same old story

One of the greatest games of the 2023-24 Premier League season was the November meeting between Chelsea and Manchester City. Chelsea was in flux, floundering under new manager Mauricio Pochettino and struggling to make sense of its massive lineup, while City was hungry to stake its claim on the title race early with a statement win. The teams traded blows, but as injury time ticked on the game looked set to end as a 4-3 City victory.

It wasn't to be. City's Ruben Dias committed a penalty-drawing foul in the 95th minute and offered Chelsea an unexpected lifeline. In pouring rain in front of the Stamford Bridge faithful, young Cole Palmer — a Man City youth prospect who abandoned the club for not taking him seriously — stepped up and sunk a perfect penalty. 4-4.

Stamford Bridge erupted. The result, and Cole Palmer's role in it, turned into legend overnight. For long-suffering Chelsea fans trying to make sense of the club's strange new direction, it felt like an affirmation, a sign that the calculated risks taken by the new American owners might be clever after all.

You know where this is heading, of course. Chelsea never built on that game's momentum and Man City never faltered from its frustration. As we enter this new Premier League season, the most surprising thing about Chelsea vs. Man City — our Premier League Game of the Week — is how unsurprising it looks. Neither team has changed at all since that rainy night last November.

Perhaps that's unfair. The teams have changed; Chelsea in particular has brought in approximately 500 new players during the summer transfer window. But the trajectories of the teams haven't budged despite all that turmoil. Chelsea remains the head-scratching anomaly, spending $130 million it doesn't have during each transfer window, building a frankly insane squad featuring eight goalkeepers and zero fit left backs. Man City remains our English Premier League champion. The names and faces on the field might not be identical to what we saw in November, but the story they're all writing sure is.

The onus of this match, then, rests squarely on Chelsea's shoulders. New manager Enzo Maresca, fresh off of masterminding Leicester City's return to the Premier League, must do what Pochettino couldn't: make sense of Chelsea's giant squad and build upon any momentum it's able to generate. Will it get that momentum in its home opener against Man City? Signs point to no; City beat Chelsea 4-2 during the preseason and scored two goals in the opening five minutes. But signs pointed to no in that wild 4-4 draw last year, too, and Chelsea managed to get a result anyway. Perhaps that's the one positive for Chelsea in a sea of negatives at the start of the season: if it's doomed to repeat last year's narrative, then at least this City game will be a banger.

Here are the bets we're eyeing as Chelsea prepares to host Man City at Stamford Bridge:

Unexpected goalscorers. It's risky to read too much into preseason friendlies, but that Chelsea-City matchup in the States was so recent and so telling that we're inclined to trust a few of the data points it presented us. Key among those data points is the strength of Chelsea's Noni Madueke and City's Oscar Bobb , both of whom were fringe players in 2023/4. They look primed for breakout seasons this year and played brilliantly against one another in preseason—each managed to score a goal for their side against the other. The odds on either being an anytime goalscorer in this match are tasty: Madueke is available at +450 while Bobb is available at +333 .

Jeremy Doku's starting case. City struggled last season with a left wing conundrum: should Phil Foden, Jack Grealish or Jeremy Doku start alongside Erling Haaland? Injuries and fitness largely forced coach Pep Guardiola's hand on that one, and he wound up starting Foden and subbing on Doku more often than he didn't. This season, however, could be different. Foden had a rough Euros and looked off the pace in preaseason; Doku, by contrast, has grown from strength to strength. We think Doku will get some serious minutes against Chelsea and we're backing him to deliver under that spotlight. He's available to score or assist at +130 .

A City victory with an asterisk. City's defense has looked good but not impenetrable during preseason; neither Kyle Walker nor Nathan Ake is at full fitness as the season begins. For that reason, we're backing a City win with at least one Chelsea goal at +200.
Chelsea hosts Man City at Stamford Bridge on Sunday, Aug. 18 at 11:30 a.m. ET.