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MLB strikeout props for Fri. 8/16: Cole to tame Tigers
By Jack Dougherty,
2024-08-16
Coming off a 2-1 day in strikeout props, we're back over .500 for the week with one more day of picks left. Let's finish the week in the green with our three favorite K props for Friday's MLB slate.
This line is absurdly high, but it's actually warranted due to the matchup. The Seattle Mariners have been by far the worst lineup in MLB this season at avoiding strikeouts against right-handed pitching. Seattle has a 29.4 percent K rate against righties over the last two weeks, and it's running into one of the premier swing-and-miss artists in baseball. Skenes ranks in the 94th percentile in strikeout rate (32.3 percent) and the 84th percentile in chase rate (31.9 percent). The star rookie is poised for a monster performance on Friday night.
It pains us to take an over on Corbin's strikeout prop considering he's been one of, if not the worst, starters in baseball this season, but this is a great setup for him. The Philadelphia Phillies have the third-highest strikeout rate against lefties over the last week (31.1 percent). Corbin isn't effective at forcing swings and misses, but he does rank in the 63rd percentile in chase rate (29.7), while the Phillies have the sixth-lowest chase contact rate in MLB. Even if Corbin struggles early, the Washington Nationals need him to eat up innings after they burned three relievers on Thursday night.
To finish off our three-pack of overs, let's ride Cole to throw a gem against the struggling Detroit Tigers. Cole is starting to find his groove with seven or more strikeouts in four of his last six starts, including a season-high 10 in his last game against the Texas Rangers. The Tigers have the sixth-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the last 10 days (26.9 percent), and this lineup has struggled against Cole in the past. In 77 combined plate appearances against the New York Yankees ace, current Tigers hitters are batting just .181 with a .224 xwOBA and a 32.5 percent K rate.
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