MLB futures: Padres All-Star overtakes Paul Skenes as NL Rookie of the Year favorite

Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes seemed like a lock for the NL Rookie of the Year award coming out of the All-Star break just one month ago .
The flamethrowing 22-year-old has continued his strong season over his last five starts but has shown signs of being human, allowing at least two runs in each outing, walking three or more batters thrice and collecting "only" 32 strikeouts during the stretch.

The relatively modest numbers have allowed a new favorite to emerge in the senior circuit's Rookie of the Year race — San Diego Padres centerfielder Jackson Merrill — at least according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Skenes became the first rookie to start an All-Star Game since 1995 in July's Midsummer Classic and just the fifth first-year player to accomplish the feat in MLB history.

Merrill, meanwhile, was a member of the NL All-Star team as well and has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball this summer.

The 21-year-old was posting a respectable .275/.307/.430 triple slash for the season on July 19 with a .737 OPS. Merrill now enters play on Wednesday with a .289/.320/.484 slash line with an .804 OPS.

In a lineup loaded with talent like six-time All-Star Manny Machado, four-time All-Star Xander Bogaerts and fellow 2024 All-Stars Fernando Tatis Jr., Jurickson Profar and Luis Arraez, the rookie ranks first in triples (six) and slugging percentage and second in runs scored (62), hits (125), stolen bases (13) and total bases (209).

Merrill was the June NL Rookie of the Month and was named the NL Player of the Week on Aug. 11. He's posted a .327/.351.644 triple slash with five home runs and 23 RBI in the second half over 101 at-bats covering 27 games.

As Merrill's bat has heated up, so have the Padres, as they've gone 13-4 in August, 22-6 in the second half and are currently a season-high 17 games above .500 at 72-55. They trail the Los Angeles Dodgers (75-52) by just three games in the NL West and hold the top wild-card spot.

What could work against Skenes' chase for the hardware is the Pirates possibly limiting his workload. Pittsburgh (59-66) has gone 4-13 in August, 11-18 in the second half and are a season-worst 14 games behind the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers (73-52)

Buried in last place in the division and fading fast in the wild-card race, the Pirates are sitting eight games behind the Atlanta Braves (67-58), who hold the third spot. They may have little reason to start Skenes the rest of the season come September.