Premier League Game of the Week: Aston Villa and Arsenal deal with their demons

In 2003, Arsenal Football Club kicked off its 78th consecutive season in the English top flight with a strong lineup and a bold vision. It was considered a favorite for the Premier League title, alongside perennial challenger Manchester United...but while many expected Arsenal to excel, few expected it to do what it actually did: dominate, in a very literal sense.

Arsenal won the 2003/4 Premier League season without losing a single game. Its players — including German goalkeeper Jens Lehmann, French midfielder Patrick Vieira and Dutch striker Dennis Bergkamp — went down in history as "the Invincibles." Their winning streak was a mighty achievement, but the very concept of invincibility has haunted Arsenal for two decades since. Why? Because as the years went on and Arsenal failed to lift the trophy again, it became clear that invincibility wasn't a fun bonus on the way to a title win. It was a prerequisite.

The past two years have proved it. Arsenal has been the best team in the Premier League by some distance, playing gorgeous, boundary-pushing soccer against all kinds of opponents. But it's been beaten to the title on both occasions by Manchester City, a team whose machine-like efficiency forces Arsenal to be perfect to even compete. Arsenal has been great, exceptional even, but it hasn't been invincible, and accordingly, it's been second-best for two straight seasons.

What's frustrating for Arsenal fans is just how close to invincibility this current Arsenal squad has been. It's lost just one match in the 2024 calendar year. But that one loss was enough to throw last season off the rails: Arsenal lost the title to Man City by a gap of two points. Had Arsenal pulled through and won that game — had it been invincible — it'd be a defending champion right now.

But which team bettered Arsenal and doomed it to second place? Which team called its bluff and rained on its Premier League parade? It wasn't Man City; Pep Guardiola's men could only draw with Arsenal when they faced off in March. It wasn't Liverpool; Arsenal hammered it 3-1 back in February. It wasn't even Tottenham Hotspur, Arsenal's old London rival; the Gunners pulled through to snatch a nervy 3-2 win against it in April.

It was none of the usual suspects. It was scrappy Aston Villa, the Cinderella story of the 2023/4 season, who turned up to the Emirates and knocked out a comprehensive 2-0 victory. And this Sunday, in our Premier League Game of the Week, it's Aston Villa who can derail Arsenal's title run before it even begins by pulling off the same feat.

But can it? Villa's fourth-placed finish last season — and dominance against top teams like Arsenal — was unexpected and probably unrepeatable. (We say this with love and admiration for the achievement: we're big Villa supporters over here.) Coach Unai Emery, himself a former Arsenal leader, is one of the top minds in the game, but he's contending with a weakened squad, a stretched schedule and a pile of unrealistic expectations. Villa's season in 2023/4 is just like Arsenal's season in 2003-24: both were incredible achievements, but both are unhealthy bars to set for the future, even if they're necessary for each team's trophy hopes.

Arsenal and Aston Villa, the league's two most celebrated teams, were on a collision course last season. It was Villa who came out ahead in the end, winning twice against Arsenal and outscoring it 3-0 over both games. But will the script flip in 2024-25? Will Arsenal take the points and finally make good on their Invincible promise?

Here are the bets we're eyeing as we prepare for Aston Villa vs. Arsenal on Sunday, Aug. 25 at 12:30 p.m. ET at Villa Park:

Result. If we're going off of last weekend's performances to judge this game, Arsenal should run away with it: the Gunners looked brilliant against Wolves while Villa looked a bit shaky against West Ham. But this clash, laden as it is with emotions from last season and Unai Emery's influence on both teams, is likely to be a bit more complicated. We think a draw is a likely outcome, and at +280 it's one that could pay well. Bettors looking for a little more bang for their buck might want to elevate that to a scored draw at +350; Villa fans high on their top four finish might want to opt for a Villa win or draw at +100 instead.

Saves. Aston Villa goalkeeper Emi Martinez is Arsenal's "one who got away." After years of languishing behind Bernd Leno as Arsenal's backup keeper, the club sold him off to Villa for pennies. You know where this story is heading: Martinez was reborn at Villa Park and went on to become arguably the best keeper in the world, winning the World Cup and the Copa America in grand style. Martinez hasn't communicated any ill will toward Arsenal, but it's not hard to imagine he'll be raring to go against his former club. We're backing him to make at least four saves at +120.

Goals and assists. Arsenal's right-wing wunderkind Bukayo Saka had a barnstormer of a game against Wolves last weekend: he assisted Kai Havertz for Arsenal's opening goal and scored a solo wonder himself for Arsenal's second. Aston Villa has stronger wingbacks than Wolves does, and Saka will be a bit muzzled in this match, but we're still expecting him to break through once or twice. We're backing him to make at least one assist at +300.

Anyone who watched Villa's game against West Ham last weekend knows how terrifying new signing Amadou Onana looks in the penalty box. He scored a stellar header in the opening minutes of that one; he's at +4000 to repeat that feat and score a header against Arsenal.