Premier League best bets: The table begins to take shape

Welcome to Matchday 3 of the Premier League season. It's been a wild first two weekends, but this should be the time when things start making some sense.

Matchday 1 is all about hypotheses; Matchday 2 is about proving or disproving those hypotheses. When we saw Brighton romp to a 4-0 away win over Everton in Game 1, we assumed Brighton had improved over the summer while Everton had fallen away; when we saw Brighton continue that positive trajectory against Man United and Everton continue its negative trajectory against Spurs in Game 2, we underlined those hypotheses in red pen: Brighton is better, Everton is worse.

When we saw Chelsea tiptoe its way through a 2-0 defeat against Manchester City in Game 1, we assumed its wild summer spending spree hadn't had its desired effect and relegated Chelsea to mid-table mediocrity in our minds. When we saw it storm back in chaotic fashion to beat Wolves 6-2 in Game 2, we erased that assumption and started out fresh: Chelsea is still a mixed bag.

If Matchday 1 and 2 gave us valuable data points to predict each team's season-long arc, then Matchday 3 should be the weekend where everything truly begins to take shape. In Matchday 3 of the last Premier League season we saw Arsenal throw away its bright start with a 2-2 draw against Fulham, giving us an early heads-up that Arteta's Gunners weren't quite as invincible as they appeared. We also saw Man City battle back from a late Sheffield United equalizer to win 2-1 through a Rodri goal; that unbeatable narrative, led by the indefatigable Rodri, again proved to be an accurate reflection of City's season.

What new storylines will be set in stone this year? Here are the bets we're eyeing that might help us find out:

Arsenal vs. Brighton, Saturday, Aug. 31, 7:30 a.m. ET — Arsenal did a comfortable double over Brighton last season, beating the Seagulls 5-0 on aggregate across both fixtures. As Arsenal prepare to face Brighton again, the odds reflect that ease: they've got Arsenal at -300 to win this one at home.

It's still early in the season, but signs point to Brighton being a very different prospect than it was in 2023/4. It's undefeated this season with five goals to its name and looks positively reborn under 31-year-old coach Fabian Hurzeler. While Arsenal is still the favorite in this head-to-head, we don't think it's quite the favorite the odds make it out to be ... so we're hedging this one by backing a draw or a Brighton win at +225. Bettors looking for a riskier, but more valuable, hedge might consider backing a straight draw at +425 instead.

West Ham vs. Manchester City, Saturday Aug. 31, 12:30 p.m. ET — The last time West Ham beat Man City in the league was way back in 2015, when Victor Moses and Diafra Sakho scored early to win the game 2-1 for the Hammers. (Dimitri Payet was in that West Ham squad and had yet to score the goal of his life for France in the opening match of the 2016 Euros; that's how you know this game was ancient history.) We're not expecting West Ham to change that statistic this weekend, and neither are the odds: they've got City as rightful favorites.

But there is an interesting trend developing over at West Ham, and it involves Czech midfielder Tomas Soucek. He's been at West Ham for a while and while he scores plenty of headed goals (he's 6-foot-4) he's never been much of an attacker. That's changed drastically this season under coach Julen Lopetegui. Faced with the potential arrival of all-around midfielder Carlos Soler — a man who would kick him out of the starting 11 — Soucek has been on attacking overdrive in 2024. He managed five shots against Aston Villa and three against Crystal Palace, and he scored one goal from those eight attempts.

He'll have a harder time breaking through City's back line, but with key defenders like Nathan Ake and Kyle Walker still returning to fitness, we're backing him to manage at least one shot on target at +225.

Chelsea vs. Crystal Palace, Sunday Sept. 1, 8:30 a.m. ET — Two games, two losses, and not a lot of positives to take away from any of it: consider the Crystal Palace hype train well and truly derailed. After a strong finish to the 2023-24 season Palace is struggling to be competitive against mid-table Premier League opposition: its defeats this year same against Brentford and West Ham, not, say, Man City and Arsenal.

Chelsea, meanwhile, is riding high on the back of the single most chaotic performance in its recent memory. It beat Wolves 6-2 last weekend on the back of some stellar individual performances. Noni Madueke scored a hat trick while Cole Palmer managed a hat trick of assists along with a goal of his own.

While Madueke has been hot and cold for Chelsea thus far, Palmer has been pretty reliable, and we're expecting him to have another strong game against Palace. We're backing a layered bet of a Chelsea win with at least one Cole Palmer goal and at least one Cole Palmer assist at +900.