Three to watch, one to avoid for NASCAR's regular-season finale at Darlington

The NASCAR Cup Series is geared up for the annual Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway on Sunday, a Labor Day weekend tradition.

This year, the race will also serve as the final event of the regular season and a last chance for drivers outside the playoff field to race their way in.

Brad Keselowski won the previous Darlington race this season after contact between leaders Tyler Reddick and Chris Buescher in the closing laps. Buescher holds the final playoff spot , while Bubba Wallace (21 points behind) and Ross Chastain (27) have outside chances to catch him.

Everyone behind them must win their way in.

Here are three drivers to watch — a favorite, contender and dark horse — for the Southern 500:

Favorite: Kyle Larson (+550, per DraftKings as of Friday afternoon )

Larson won the Southern 500 a year ago and is considered the favorite again — and for good reason. The fact that 2023's version of this event is his only career Cup Series win at Darlington undersells how good Larson is at the track, where he has led 785 laps and posted six finishes inside the top three.

The only concern with Larson is that he's known to try too hard sometimes, and Darlington is an unforgiving track on which one mistake can be costly. However, assuming he can run a clean race, one can expect the driver of the No. 5 car to pick up win No. 5 in 2024.

Contender: Brad Keselowski (+1100)

As noted, Keselowski was the winner of the spring race at Darlington this season, and while it's his teammate, Buescher, who has a playoff spot on the line, one can assume with his points advantage that he will play it safer. Keselowski, though, has nothing to lose and a potential handful of playoff points to gain, and there's no reason to believe he won't be a threat.

At +1100, Keselowski is tied for the fifth-best odds, a solid value. He may not be as tempting of a pick as Denny Hamlin (+600) or Tyler Reddick (+650), but the payout is much greater.

Dark horse: Ross Chastain (+2000)

Chastain only has two career top-10 finishes at Darlington, but he led significant laps in the 2022 and 2023 spring races before crashing out — in the latter instance while battling for the win.

Chastain's Trackhouse Racing team has often lacked speed in 2024, hence why he is listed at +2000. However, he has found his way near the front on strategy a few times this season, and one can only imagine the No. 1 team will be pulling out all the stops to give its driver a shot at the win.

Avoid: Kyle Busch (+1100)

Riding back-to-back top-five finishes in a last-ditch push to earn his way in, Busch is another big name in danger of missing the playoffs. That's a big reason why oddsmakers are bullish on him this weekend at +1100 — the same odds as Keselowski — as well as the fact that Busch has a solid record at Darlington (a win and 899 career laps led).

Perhaps it's a little bit too bullish, though.

In three races at Darlington since joining Richard Childress Racing, Busch has a best finish of seventh and has not led a lap. In the spring race this season, he ran 27th, a result that was not influenced by on-track misfortune. It's hard to envision his team turning that around enough to win, so stay away from "Rowdy." He will miss the playoffs for the first time in 12 years.