The NBA's Most Improved Player award: Is predictability taking over?

FanDuel's odds for the 2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player award lists San Antonio's Victor Wembanyama as the favorite. The award, given to the player who shows the most improvement over the past season — whether due to an increased role or a change of scenery — is set for its 40th installment this year.

With the NBA preseason about a month away, Wembanyama’s status as the betting favorite has sparked some interesting discussion.

Young players winning the Most Improved Player award is nothing new. In the award's existence, players 24 years old or younger have claimed it 24 times. Notable recipients include Tracy McGrady, Paul George, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Love, all of whom benefited from either a change of scenery, personal growth, or other circumstances that facilitated their improvement.

However, the glaring issue with a potential Wembanyama win is the sheer predictability of his rise. In the history of the award, a first-overall draft pick has only won it once with Pervis Ellison's 1992 induction being the only instance of this. Even with Ellison, a highly ranked prospect out of Louisville, it took him two prior years of mediocrity and a significant jump in minutes to win this award, which he would not capitalize on with any season close to its production in the following eight years of his career.

Wenbamyama's case is much different. Over the past three years, fans have witnessed the hype for him grow from a question mark with potential in French basketball to perhaps the most anticipated young prospect since LeBron James in 2003 or even Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in 1969. His sophomore rise is anticipated and expected by basically everyone.

Additionally, Wembanyama just won the Rookie of the Year award last season. If he wins Most Improved Player, he would be only the second player in NBA history to claim both honors, following Ja Morant in 2022. Notably, Morant gave his MIP trophy to runner-up Desmond Bane, believing Bane deserved it more. While Bane’s rise was also impressive — doubling his scoring average from his rookie season in only eight additional minutes — it was far less expected than Morant's improvement or Wembanyama's anticipated improvement.

Morant's 2022 win, along with Tyrese Maxey’s victory last season over Chicago’s Coby White, highlights a growing issue with the Most Improved Player award. What was once a recognition of unexpected improvement and the ability to seize new opportunities is now increasingly seen as a reward for the most prominent name showing any improvement, expected or not.

This trend marks a departure from past winners like Victor Oladipo in 2018, Pascal Siakam in 2019 or Paul George in 2013, who represented more surprising and earned leaps in performance.

As the NBA continues to evolve, the criteria for this award may need reevaluation to maintain its original spirit of recognizing truly unexpected and significant improvement.