NFL betting guide: Week 2 picks and predictions

Week 1 of the NFL season has come and gone, so it's time to turn our attention to Week 2. What did we learn about each team around the league, and how can that shape our betting strategy for this week? Let's find out with our Week 2 preview for all 16 games on the NFL slate.

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins

Thursday, Sept. 12, 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
Spread: Dolphins -2.5
Total: 48.5

Week 2 begins with an AFC East battle on "Thursday Night Football" after both teams survived upset bids in Week 1. The Bills knocked off the Arizona Cardinals thanks to Josh Allen's 271 total yards and four touchdowns, while the defense got to Kyler Murray for four sacks.

The Dolphins came back to take down the Jacksonville Jaguars, and Tua Tagovailoa led the NFL with 336 passing yards in Week 1. Raheem Mostert has already been ruled out, and De'Von Achane will be a game-time decision, so Miami will need Tagovailoa to light it up with his arm again.

Mismatch to exploit: Josh Allen vs. Dolphins secondary
Allen has torched the Dolphins for at least 300 passing yards in five straight games against them. Take a look at his over passing yards prop.

Prediction: Bills 27, Dolphins 20

Indianapolis Colts @ Green Bay Packers

Sunday, Sept. 15, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: Colts -3
Total: 40.5

The Packers lost more than just their Week 1 matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles. Jordan Love also went down with an MCL sprain, so he's unlikely to suit up in Week 2. Malik Willis will get the start if Love can't go.

The Colts lost to the Houston Texans despite Anthony Richardson creating his own highlight tape with 267 total yards and three touchdowns. The tantalizing quarterback completed only 47.4 percent of his passes, so he needs to be more consistent if the Colts are going to make a playoff push.

Mismatch to exploit: Malik Willis vs. NFL defenses
If Willis ends up starting this game, you should explore every avenue to fade him. The former third-round pick has no touchdowns, three interceptions and a 13.3 QBR in his career. He can't hack it in this league.

Prediction: Colts 21, Packers 16

Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, Sept. 15, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Jaguars -3.5
Total: 41.5

The Dawg Pound is saying woof for a different reason after Week 1, as the Browns got clobbered by the Dallas Cowboys on their home field. Deshaun Watson looked completely lost, throwing for just 169 yards and two interceptions on 24/45 passing. He should have a better performance against the Jaguars secondary, which gave up the most passing yards in Week 1.

The Jaguars made too many mistakes on both sides of the ball in their loss to the Dolphins, and Trevor Lawrence didn't look as if he took the next step forward like many predicted. One bright spot was rookie Brian Thomas Jr., who reeled in all four of his targets for 47 yards and a touchdown.

Mismatch to exploit: Kevin Stefanski vs. Doug Pederson
Give Pederson his flowers for winning a Super Bowl with the Eagles, but that guy is long gone. He's a below-average head coach in today's NFL, while Stefanski is a two-time Coach of the Year winner. We trust Stefanski to turn the season around before Pederson does.

Prediction: Browns 19, Jaguars 17

Seattle Seahawks @ New England Patriots

Sunday, Sept. 15, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: Seahawks -3.5
Total: 37.5

The biggest upset of Week 1 came with the Patriots taking down the Cincinnati Bengals as 7.5-point underdogs. The defense looked great, but Jacoby Brissett put up only 121 passing yards and no touchdowns in the victory. New England will have to muck up the game to have a chance.

The Seahawks started slow in Week 1, but they rebounded to knock off the Denver Broncos. The new defense under Mike Macdonald held Denver to just 3.3 yards per play and three turnovers.

Mismatch to exploit: Christian Gonzalez vs. DK Metcalf
Metcalf can struggle against elite cornerbacks, as he did last week with just three catches for 29 yards against Patrick Surtain II. Gonzalez played like a lockdown corner in his first game back from injury, so Metcalf to go under his receiving yards prop could be a good look.

Prediction: Seahawks 20, Patriots 13

San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings

Sunday, Sept. 15, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: 49ers -6.5
Total: 45.5

So much for all that New York Jets hype. The 49ers emphatically shut that down with a dominant performance in Week 1, proving they're still the class of the NFC. Jordan Mason rushed for 147 yards and a touchdown after Christian McCaffrey was ruled out due to ankle and calf injuries. McCaffrey may not suit up in this one, either.
Sam Darnold played great in his first game with the Vikings, throwing for 208 yards and two touchdowns in a comfortable win against the New York Giants. How much of that was Darnold improving, and how much of it was the Giants being terrible? We'll find out this week.

Mismatch to exploit: Sam Darnold vs. a good defense
We're not convinced Darnold is the quarterback we saw last week. The Giants might be the worst team in the NFL, so he might go back to seeing ghosts against San Francisco's fast, aggressive defense. Take a look at Minnesota's team total under here.

Prediction: 49ers 27, Vikings 20

New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans

Sunday, Sept. 15, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Jets -3.5
Total: 40.5

Speaking of the Jets, they stay on the road to take on the Titans in Week 2. Aaron Rodgers looked comfortable with a clean pocket in Week 1, but his mobility was clearly compromised coming off Achilles surgery. The more troubling aspect from Week 1 was the defense giving up 401 yards and 32 points.

The Titans had maybe the worst loss of the Week 1 slate, blowing a 17-0 lead to the Chicago Bears due to Will Levis' carelessness with the ball. Head coach Brian Callahan said they would've been better off punting on first and 10 to start every drive in the second half, and he might be right. Levis needs to improve his pocket presence and decision-making.

Mismatch to exploit: Will Levis vs. Jets defense
Levis looked like a college quarterback who wasn't used to the speed of NFL defenses in Week 1, and now he has to go against Quinnen Williams, C.J. Mosley and Sauce Gardner. Fading Levis in the prop market might be the way to play this one.

Prediction: Jets 24, Titans 13

New York Giants @ Washington Commanders

Sunday, Sept. 15, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: Commanders -1.5
Total: 44.5

The Giants were booed off their home field in a blowout loss to the Vikings in Week 1, and they deserved it. Daniel Jones went 22/42 for just 186 yards, two interceptions and one of the worst pick-sixes you'll ever see, while the defense let the Vikings go for 6.1 yards per play even though the game was over for two quarters. It's going to be a long year for Big Blue.

The Commanders looked like the worst defense in the league in last week's loss against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but Jayden Daniels impressed with 272 total yards and two rushing scores. He had the best Week 1 performance of the rookie quarterbacks.

Mismatch to exploit: Malik Nabers vs. Commanders secondary
Baker Mayfield torched the Commanders for 289 yards on 24/30 passing, so the Giants are going to test this secondary with the only explosive weapon they have. Check out Nabers to score a touchdown or go over his receiving yards prop.

Prediction: Giants 24, Commanders 20

Las Vegas Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens

Sunday, Sept. 15, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Ravens -9.5
Total: 41.5

The Ravens nearly knocked off the Chiefs in Week 1, but Isaiah Likely's toe was an inch too big in the end. Likely was the star of the show with nine catches for 111 yards and a touchdown, while Lamar Jackson ran wild for 122 yards on 16 carries. This offense will be just fine.
The Raiders weren't as impressive in their loss to the Chargers, but their passing offense showed some promise with 257 yards from Gardner Minshew and six catches for 58 yards from rookie tight end Brock Bowers.

Mismatch to exploit: Ravens running game vs. Raiders defensive line
The Raiders let the Chargers rush for 176 yards on 6.5 yards per carry, and here comes Derrick Henry rumbling down the track. With Jackson banged up from last week, the Ravens should pound Henry on the ground. Check out his rushing yards prop overs or anytime touchdown odds.

Prediction: Ravens 23, Raiders 19

New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys

Sunday, Sept. 15, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: Cowboys -6.5
Total: 46.5

The Saints dominated the Panthers in Week 1, but we'll be saying that a lot about Carolina this season. It's hard to take anything substantial from that result, and now Derek Carr has to go up against an actual NFL defense.

The Cowboys also looked dominant in their win against the Browns, especially on the defensive end. Dallas held Cleveland to 3.3 yards per play, forced two turnovers and sacked Watson six times. We could see a repeat performance against an inexperienced Saints offensive line.

Mismatch to exploit: Derek Carr vs. Cowboys defensive line
Carr is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL when he's under pressure, so Micah Parsons and company will be coming after him in this matchup. Take a look at Carr to throw an interception for Dallas' defense to rack up more sacks.

Prediction: Cowboys 30, Saints 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions

Sunday, Sept. 15, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: Lions -7
Total: 51.5

It's time to admit it: Baker Mayfield is a good NFL quarterback. The veteran dissected Washington's defense with his arm, avoided pressure well while keeping his eyes up field and was fantastic on third downs. This version of Mayfield can lead the Bucs to another NFC South title.

The Lions escaped with an overtime win against the Lions in Week 1, riding the ground game for 163 yards on 5.3 yards per carry. Jameson Williams also proved he's ready to take the next step with five catches for 121 yards and a touchdown.

Mismatch to exploit: Baker Mayfield vs. Lions secondary
The Lions allowed Cooper Kupp to catch 14 passes for 110 yards last week, and that was with Puka Nacua being out for most of the game. They knew what was coming and still couldn't stop it. Check out Mayfield and Mike Evans to go over their props.

Prediction: Lions 31, Buccaneers 17

Los Angeles Chargers @ Carolina Panthers

Sunday, Sept. 15, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Chargers -6.5
Total: 38.5

The Chargers ran the ball down the Raiders' throat in Week 1, highlighted by J.K. Dobbins' 135 yards and a touchdown on only 10 carries. Even with Justin Herbert under center, Jim Harbaugh is going to commit to running the football early and often.

There isn't much to say about the Panthers that hasn't already been said. Bryce Young is still one of the worst QBs in the league, and the atrocious defense got even worse with Derrick Brown suffering a potentially season-ending injury last week.

Mismatch to exploit: Chargers running game vs. Panthers defensive line
The Panthers allowed Alvin Kamara to rush for 5.5 yards per carry in Week 1, and now they're missing a Pro Bowler on the defensive line. Check out Dobbins and Gus Edwards to go over their rushing yards props or score touchdowns.

Prediction: Chargers 20, Panthers 14

Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals

Sunday, Sept. 15, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: Cardinals -1.5
Total: 49.5

Not only did the Rams lose to the Lions in Week 1, but they also lost Nacua to a knee injury and placed him on injured reserve. Kupp, who saw a whopping 21 targets, might match that total in Week 2. The biggest worry for Los Angeles is its battered offensive line.

The Cardinals started out hot against the Bills, but the offense went cold down the stretch. Kyler Murray finished the game with only 4.2 yards per pass attempt, and Marvin Harrison Jr. caught just one pass for four yards. The dink-and-dunk offense isn't going to cut it against good teams.

Mismatch to exploit: Cardinals defense vs. Rams offensive line
This isn't a mismatch as much as it is a weakness for the Rams, but two of their starters are questionable and three other offensive linemen are on IR. Kyren Williams under rushing yards could be the play here.

Prediction: Rams 28, Cardinals 24

Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, Sept. 15, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Chiefs -5.5
Total: 47.5

What in the world was that, Bengals? Cincinnati put up only 10 points, while Joe Burrow threw for just 4.8 yards per attempt in an embarrassing loss to the Patriots. This team always seems to start slow under Zac Taylor, and now it has to go up against the Super Bowl champs.

The Chiefs still look like the best team in the AFC after knocking off the Ravens in Week 1. As if they needed any more offensive firepower, rookie Xavier Worthy went for 68 total yards and two touchdowns on only three touches. Who's stopping this offense?

Mismatch to exploit: Ja'Marr Chase vs. Trent McDuffie and Steve Spagnuolo
If Tee Higgins doesn't suit up again in Week 2, Spagnuolo is going to form an entire defensive game plan around stopping Chase. McDuffie will be a big part of that, so check out the under on Chase's receiving yards prop.

Prediction: Chiefs 27, Bengals 24

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos

Sunday, Sept. 15, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Cardinals Steelers -2.5
Total: 36.5

The Steelers rode their defense to an upset win against the Falcons in Week 1, as T.J. Watt looked like the most unstoppable defensive player in the NFL. The offense, however, failed to reach the end zone and settled for six field goals. Justin Fields will be back under center if Russell Wilson can't go.

Bo Nix tossed two interceptions and threw for a gross 3.0 yards per attempt against the Seahawks in his first NFL start. It might take him a while to feel comfortable throwing down the field. The defense let Kenneth Walker II run for 103 yards and a touchdown.

Mismatch to exploit: Bo Nix vs. Steelers defense
The Steelers made Kirk Cousins' slife a living hell in Week 1, and they'll try to do the same to Nix in Week 2. Take a look at Nix to go under his passing yards prop or passing touchdowns prop.

Prediction: Steelers 17, Broncos 14

Chicago Bears @ Houston Texans

Sunday, Sept. 15, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Spread: Texans -6.5
Total: 45.5

The MVP of Chicago's Week 1 win was Levis. The defense and special teams looked great, sure, but the offense didn't score a touchdown and averaged just 2.8 yards per play. Caleb Williams struggled with only 93 passing yards on 14/29 through the air.

The Texans had no problems moving the ball on offense, as they put up 417 yards of offense against the Colts. New addition Joe Mixon ran wild for 159 yards and a touchdown on 30 carries, and Nico Collins added 117 yards through the air.

Mismatch to exploit: Caleb Williams vs. the spotlight
Williams looked nervous and hesitant in his first career NFL start, and that was in front of his home crowd. Now he has to go on the road for a primetime game against a Super Bowl contender. Check out his passing yard unders or interception prop.

Prediction: Texans 28, Bears 17

Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles

Monday, Sept. 16, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Spread: Eagles -6.5
Total: 47.5

Kirk Cousins, like Rodgers, wasn't able to move well coming off his Achilles injury. The veteran quarterback threw for only 155 yards and two interceptions, but the defense utilized the bend-don't-break strategy to hold the Steelers to six field goals. We'll see how that works this week against the Eagles.

After a rough interception to start to the season, Jalen Hurts turned things around and led Philadelphia to 34 points and a win against the Packers. Saquon Barkley also dominated with 132 total yards and three touchdowns, but the defense didn't look sharp against Love.

Mismatch to exploit: Kirk Cousins vs. Eagles defensive line
Cousins struggled against the Steelers because Watt was in his grill all day, but the Eagles have one of the worst pass-rush groups in the NFL. With time to sit in the pocket and scan the field, Cousins should do enough to hit his passing yards or passing touchdowns props.

Prediction: Eagles 30, Vikings 24