Three to watch, one to avoid for NASCAR at Watkins Glen

The NASCAR Cup Series is on the winding roads of upstate New York this Sunday for the Go Bowling at The Glen at Watkins Glen International. It's the second race of the 10-week playoffs and the first time WGI has ever hosted a playoff race.

Last year, William Byron dominated in an event that only had one yellow flag, as NASCAR had eliminated stage cautions. That won't be the case this year, and strategy will be premium. With that in mind, here are three drivers to watch — a favorite, a contender and a dark horse — for Sunday's action, as well as one driver to avoid.

Favorite: Chase Elliott (+800, per DraftKings as of Friday afternoon)

Elliott hasn't won on a road course since 2021, but that's bound to change at some point and Watkins Glen is his best track on the schedule. Outside of last year's race when Elliott's crew chief Alan Gustafson ran him out of fuel on the track, he has contended for the win every year there since 2018. That includes back-to-back wins in 2018 and 2019 and a runner-up finish in 2021, and he led on the final restart in 2022 (NASCAR did not race at the Glen in 2020).

Elliott's odds are tied for the fourth-highest at +800. That's a bargain for a driver who could easily be considered the favorite, and who will be out to make a statement as he looks to assert himself into title contention. Put your money on the No. 9 machine this weekend.

Contender: Michael McDowell (+1600)

Looking for a non-playoff driver to spoil the party this week? The popular picks will be Kaulig Racing's duo of road course specialists in Shane van Gisbergen and A.J. Allmendinger, but it could also be McDowell, who has led double-digit laps in each of his past two trips to the Glen. Last season he started third and seemed to have the car to beat early on before electrical issues doomed his day.

McDowell's +1600 odds are only tied for 10th-highest, the same as Kyle Busch and only barely above Denny Hamlin. For a driver with two top-five finishes on road courses in 2024, he should be well ahead of that range, so grab that value while you can.

Dark horse: Alex Bowman (+3000)

Guess which driver has scored the most points of anyone in the Cup Series on road courses this season? Now guess again, because your first guess was probably not the correct one: Bowman. It's only a three-race sample size, sure, but included among those races is a win on the Chicago Street Course, the most recent time the Cup Series turned both left and right.

Bowman is an incredibly streaky driver, but that momentum seems to be swinging up right now as he's looking to back up a top-five finish last week in Atlanta. Yet the oddsmakers seem to be sleeping on him, giving him +3000 odds that are the same as Juan Pablo Montoya, a driver who hasn't been in a Cup car in 10 years. Bowman might be your best value in the field this week.

Avoid: Shane van Gisbergen (+500)

Okay, we get it, this guy is good on road courses. But let's pump the brakes here. +500? Tied with Kyle Larson for the best odds in the entire field? That seems very generous for a driver who has never run on this track before, and who has not been much of a threat in his previous Cup starts on true road courses (the Chicago Street Course being classified as its own different animal here).

van Gisbergen has won the past three road courses in the Xfinity Series, and will surely be a threat to make it four in a row on Saturday. However, his status as a favorite for the Cup race seems to be solely tied to his Chicago victory a season ago, which was (literally) the perfect storm for him as he raced in wet conditions on a track that was brand-new for the entire field. Do not take the bait on SVG.