Premier League Game of the Week: Man City, Arsenal and the myth of the 'season decider'

When Manchester City and Arsenal faced off last season, much was written about how the clash was a "season decider." Neither team was expected to drop a lot of points, of course, and many believed that the outcome of their shared battle would wind up tipping the scales in one team's favor.

But that's not what happened. Arsenal emerged victorious from its battles with City, taking home four points of a possible six, but it still lost the title to City when the dust settled.

Arsenal's season, it turned out, didn't hinge upon its meetings with its closest rival. It was its failure to beat Aston Villa and Fulham — twice — that handed City the trophy in the end.

Manchester City vs. Arsenal, Sunday, Sept. 22, 11:30 a.m. ET

As we prepare for City vs. Arsenal part two — our undisputed Premier League Game of the Week — it's important to keep this context in mind. Yes, a win here would mean plenty to both teams, but it's incredibly unlikely that either team's season will rise or fall based on the result of this match. And that's good news for both sides, because neither enter this game with anything resembling a full squad.

Despite everything you've heard from your local Gunners, Arsenal enters this match with a much deeper bench than City does. It's missing one key player (Martin Odegaard) and a few substitutes (Mikel Merino, Riccardo Calafiori) but is otherwise fighting fit. Arsenal's biggest asset is its defense, which has quietly turned into one of the strongest back lines in the league. French center back William Saliba gets all the love, but Ben White, Jurrien Timber and Gabriel Magalhaes are all world-class. Gabriel is even a threat in front of goal: he scored the winner in the North London derby last weekend. (He is our personal favorite of Arsenal's three Brazilian Gabriels and one of the few modern defenders who seems to really love defending. Throw him in with Real Madrid's Antonio Rüdiger, Liverpool's Virgil van Dijk and our dearly departed Portuguese hero Pepe, who retired a few weeks ago and left a gaping hole in the global defensive landscape. We need more center backs like them.)

City's bench, by contrast, is in rough shape. It's missing midfielder Oscar Bobb and defender Nathan Aké to long-term injuries. It's playing midfielder Rodri, forward Phil Foden and defender Kyle Walker despite warnings that none of them are fully fit. And to make matters worse, it may be without Kevin de Bruyne, its midfield talisman: the Belgian suffered an injury against Inter Milan in the Champions League and came off at halftime after playing some of the worst and most disjointed minutes of soccer we've seen him turn out in ages.
City remain the favorites in this one, though, largely for one reason: Erling Haaland. The Norwegian striker has already put away nine goals in four games this season. That's not just more than any other player: it's more than any other team, period, and it should have the Gunners quaking in their boots. Arsenal doesn't have its own Haaland to fight back—in recent seasons, it's had a lot of 10-15 goals-per-season kinds of players but no Golden Boot challenger—so it's going to need its famous defense to hold firm if it wants to compete.

City vs. Arsenal. First vs. second. It may not be the season decider the media wants it to be, but it's going to be a thriller all the same. Here are the bets we're looking at as the game ticks closer:

Result. The odds are firmly in favor of City in this one: the Opta supercomputer , usually a pretty good touchpoint for expected results, has City winning 52% of simulations and Arsenal taking home just 28%. Home field advantage plays a big role in that discrepancy. But if we learned anything from City's midweek match against Inter Milan in the Champions League, it's that the Etihad Stadium doesn't provide much of a lift to City anymore: rising ticket prices and an influx of well-mannered foreign visitors make it feel more like a theater audience than a soccer crowd. (Sorry, City fans. You know it's true.)

With that in mind — and the one-two punch of City's midweek flop and Arsenal's strong performance in this match last season — we're inclined to buck the odds and back the Gunners on this one. They're at +350 to take home an away win , and for two teams much closer in stature than the odds suggest, we think that's a steal. Bettors looking to pad those odds even further might want to back an Arsenal win with at least one City goal at +750, while bettors looking for a bit of a hedge might want to consider an Arsenal win or draw at -106.

Offensive action. Who turns up for Arsenal in the big moments? Why, Leandro Trossard , that's who. (We looked at the stats recently and found that he's more effective as an attacking winger than Gabriel Martinelli on just about every possible metric, regardless of whether he starts the game or gets subbed in late.) He's one of Arsenal's most productive offensive players and he thrives under the spotlight that this sort of game provides. We're backing him to score or assist at +240.

On the City side of things, we're going to be predictable here and shout out Haaland again. Yes, he's scored nine goals in the league this season, but the odds don't seem to have caught up to just how many shots he's managing outside of those goals. He pulled off six shots, four of which were on target, against Brentford last weekend and his stats are similar across his previous three Premier League games. We're backing him to make at least two shots on target at +125 ...but fans of his under-appreciated build-up play might want to opt for him to make at least three at +450 instead.

Tackles. Man City under-utilized winger Jack Grealish is known for his creativity and energy, but he's sneakily one of the more physical midfielders in the league: he's always good for a tackle. (He's made at least one in each of his last few games for City.) With emotions running high in this match, we're backing Greals to make at least two tackles at +162.

Manchester City will host Arsenal at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday, Sept. 22 at 1:30 a.m. ET.