Baylor's Dave Aranda and the razor-thin margin of ending up on the hot seat

A Hail Mary and a goal-line fumble. That's all that has separated head coach Dave Aranda and the Baylor Bears from a massive win Saturday at Colorado.

The Bears went into Folsom Field, played quality football for much of the evening, but in the end fell, 38-31, in overtime. Baylor is 2-2 and Aranda's seat is still warm.

The line between success and hot seat can be razor-thin in college football and Aranda has unfortunately found himself on the wrong size of the line. The Baylor coach took over after Matt Rhule's departure in 2019, and after a 2-9 season in 2020, took the Bears to the Sugar Bowl in 2021. Since then, Baylor is 11-18, with enough heartbreaking losses for one lifetime.

After the Sugar Bowl, Baylor was ranked ninth in the nation to begin 2022. In the second game of the season, the Bears lost in double overtime at No. 21 BYU and the woes began. A three-point loss at West Virginia and a 29-28 heartbreaker against rival TCU was part of a 3-6 finish to the season.

2023 got off on the wrong foot with starting quarterback Blake Shapen injured in a season-opening loss to Texas State. Still, the Bears nearly pulled off an upset in Week 2 against Utah, but lost 20-13. Despite injuries piling up, Aranda's squad managed to be 3-4 midway through the year, but a free fall of five straight losses again ended the season on a sour note. Two of the five losses came by a combined four points.

Last Saturday's loss at Colorado was a backbreaker, putting Baylor at 2-2 with three of its next four games against ranked opponents. Free fall could come early this season, but that's the thing about Aranda: he's on the hot seat and likely headed for the unemployment line, but if a few games went the other way he'd widely be considered a solid hire. It's a tale as old as time in college football.

What if the three aforementioned losses went the other way in 2021? Aranda would have been 9-4 with two more ranked wins, including one over a top-five ranked rival. In 2022, injuries and inconsistent quarterback play could have earned him a bit of leniency had the Bears defeated Houston (25-24 loss) and West Virginia (34-31 loss), which would have been good for 5-7.

In college football, a few plays here and there can cost schools millions. It can cost coaches jobs.

Perhaps it's not worth playing the "what-if" game because "what-ifs" don't save jobs. But it does illustrate just how close Aranda is to being in a much better position. Moving forward, he must find a way for his team to shake off the heartbreak against Colorado and right the ship.

If not, his seat will be burning red hot by season's end.