Look of the Day for 9/27:

Corbin Burnes went under his earned runs prop on Thursday night to cash our third straight Look of the Day, bringing our record to a sizzling 8-2 in our last 10 picks. Let's finish the week strong with another player prop for Friday night's MLB slate.

Look of the Day: Merrill Kelly under 17.5 outs recorded (-120 DraftKings )

Padres at Diamondbacks, 9:40 p.m. ET

The Arizona Diamondbacks are taking on the San Diego Padres in a crucial game for wild-card positioning in the National League, and we're looking for Kelly to go under his outs prop in this one.

Kelly is 5-0 in his 12 starts this season, but he's been much worse than that record suggests. The D-backs right-hander ranks in the ninth percentile in xERA (5.10), the 15th percentile in xBA (.268) and the fourth percentile in barrel rate (11.1 percent) this season. He's been pretty lucky to keep his ERA down considering how many hard-hit balls he's given up.

Kelly also hasn't been an effective inning-eater since coming off the injured list in August. In eight starts since his return, Kelly has gone over his line only three times. He's averaging just 73.3 pitches per game over his last three starts.

The Diamondbacks are only one game ahead of the Atlanta Braves for the final wild-card spot in the NL, so manager Torey Lovullo is going to treat this like a playoff game. If Merrill gets in trouble early, Lovullo won't hesitate to go to the bullpen and stop the bleeding. That scenario seems likely considering the Padres rank second in MLB in OPS (.838) and third in wRC+ (135) against right-handed pitching over the last two weeks.