Three to watch, one to avoid as NASCAR heads to Kansas

The second round of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs is set to begin this weekend when the green flag drops at Kansas Speedway.

The last time NASCAR was in Kansas, fans were rewarded with the closest finish in Cup Series history as Kyle Larson edged out Chris Buescher by 0.001 seconds. This time, there are greater implications on the line with Sunday's race being the first of three contests before the 12-man title race dwindles to eight.

With that in mind, here are three drivers to watch — a favorite, a contender and a dark horse — as well as one to avoid for the Hollywood Casino 400.

Favorite: Tyler Reddick (+650, per DraftKings as of Friday afternoon)

A disclaimer must be made here that Larson should be considered the true favorite, especially coming off the heels of his dominant win in Bristol. However, Larson's odds of +320 are so astronomically low that there can't be considered much of any value in picking him. So instead, it's Reddick who gets the nod. He won at Kansas last fall and the 23XI Racing No. 45 car has won three of the past five Kansas races.

Reddick's price offers a more reasonable payout at +650, made more appealing by Larson's tendency to be unpredictable from week to week. The regular-season champion will re-introduce himself as a top contender in the title race this week.

Contender: Chase Elliott (+1200)

Lost in the show Larson put on in Bristol was that his teammate finished just behind him after methodically picking his way through the field all night. Elliott has momentum on his side and Kansas has been one of his best tracks throughout his career. He has more top-five finishes there than he has anywhere else besides Dover. Even last season, when Elliott mightily struggled, he led laps in both Kansas races and earned a pair of top-10s.

His odds seem like a good deal at +1200, ranked sixth in the field. Elliott has hovered in the mix all season, but has not yet had that statement moment. (Perhaps he's been saving it for the right time.)

Dark horse: Ross Chastain (+2500)

Chastain isn't in the playoffs, but in three playoff races thus far in 2024, he's finished 13th, fourth and 10th. Now he comes to a track where he led 43 laps earlier in the year before fading late, so he'll have some unfinished business to take care of.

Thirteen different drivers are listed with better odds than Chastain's of +2500, but it certainly doesn't feel like there are 13 drivers with better chances to win. The "Melon Man" is the best value in the field this week.

Avoid: Ryan Blaney (+1400)

It feels like a broken record at this point, but as good as Blaney is, Team Penske just does not have the intermediate speed right now to put him in position to win at Kansas. Since 2021, he hasn't finished better than ninth there and has only led three laps. It's hard to envision that changing on Sunday.

Blaney's +1400 odds are better than all but six drivers and are above names such as Chris Buescher, Bubba Wallace and Chastain, who could all very realistically compete for the win. Blaney will have opportunities to assert himself in the title race as he seeks back-to-back championships, but this week won't be one of them.