NCAAF best bets: Dougherty's college football Week 6 picks and preview

If you're trying to plan the fall Saturday to go apple picking with the family, this might be the one. The Week 6 college football slate doesn't feature any ranked matchups, but that doesn’t mean we’re taking the week off from betting. Let’s break down the five biggest matchups in college football Week 6 and find some valuable bets for each one.

No. 9 Missouri Tigers @ Texas A&M Aggies

Saturday, Oct. 5, Noon ET, ABC

Missouri has been playing with fire lately, and this could be the week it finally gets burnt. The Tigers played with their food against Boston College and survived with a 27-21 win, and they should've lost to Vanderbilt two weeks ago before escaping with a 30-27 win in overtime. This passing offense behind Brady Cook hasn't been as explosive as we expected coming into the season.

Texas A&M rebounded from its season-opening loss to Notre Dame to improve to 4-1, as Marcel Reed has brought a dual-threat weapon to this offense with Connor Weigman sidelined. Weigman is listed as questionable for this week, but we like the Aggies no matter who starts under center.

The bet to make: Texas A&M -2.5 (-105 BetMGM)

SMU Mustangs @ No. 22 Louisville Cardinals

Saturday, Oct. 5, Noon ET, ESPN

SMU put up two puzzling performances against Nevada and BYU early in the season, but the offense has come to life with 108 points over the last two weeks. Led by running back Brashard Smith, the Mustangs ran for a combined 442 yards against TCU and Florida State.

They might not be able to keep that rolling against Louisville, which ranks 33rd in the country in yards allowed per rush and 37th in rushing yards allowed per game. The Cardinals outplayed Notre Dame last week but lost because of two lost fumbles and an interception. If they take care of the ball, the Cardinals should handle the Mustangs.

The bet to make: Louisville -6.5 (-112 DraftKings)

Auburn Tigers @ No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs

Saturday, Oct. 5, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Coming off a near-miraculous comeback against Alabama, Georgia returns to Athens to face off against an Auburn team in disarray. The Tigers have lost three of their last four games, and head coach Hugh Freeze takes every opportunity he can to blame anyone but himself for the disappointing start. Payton Thorne played his best game of the season against Oklahoma, but he's going to be in trouble against an angry Bulldogs defense.

Carson Beck threw three interceptions against the Crimson Tide. If he plays a clean game and doesn't put his defense into bad spots, Georgia should smother Auburn all game.

The bet to make: Auburn team total under 14.5 (-130 FD)

Iowa Hawkeyes @ No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes

Saturday, Oct. 5, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

This is a much better Iowa offense than we've seen in years past, but most of that production is coming on the ground. Running back Kaleb Johnson leads the Big Ten with 685 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns through four games.

Riding Johnson on the ground can work against overmatched teams, but Ohio State isn't one of those. The Buckeyes rank fourth in the country in rushing yards allowed per attempt (1.9). Ohio State is going to sell out to stop Johnson and make Cade McNamara beat them, and we're not sure he can.

The bet to make: Ohio State -18 (-110 Caesars)

No. 8 Miami Hurricanes @ California Golden Bears

Saturday, Oct. 5, 10 p.m. ET, ESPN

We can't wait for this one. Miami survived an upset scare against Virginia Tech last week, but the blueprint is out on how to attack this defense. The Hokies ran for 206 yards on 6.4 yards per carry against the Hurricanes, and Cal can ride the same strategy behind running backs Jaydn Ott and Jaivian Thomas.

Justin Wilcox has been a profitable head coach to back in these spots, as Cal has gone 14-7 against the spread as a double-digit underdog during his tenure. The Golden Bears knocked off five outright wins in that span, so don't be surprised if we see a late-night upset special on ESPN.

The bet to make: California +10.5 (-110 FD)