MLB playoffs: Dougherty's best bets for ALDS Game 2s

The ALDS continues on Monday with a pair of Game 2s, with the Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians and the Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees. With a full day of playoff baseball on deck, let's check out our three favorite bets for Monday's ALDS action.

Tarik Skubal over 1.5 earned runs allowed (-120 DraftKings)

No one wants to fade Skubal right now, but we're brave enough to step in front of the freight train. In 65 combined plate appearances against the Tigers ace, current Guardians hitters are batting .274 with a 23.1 percent strikeout rate, which is much lower than his season strikeout rate of 30.3 percent. Skubal gave up a season-high 10 hits in his lone start against the Guardians this season, and Cleveland ranks second in OPS (.901) and first in wRC+ (153) against southpaws since September 1.

Royals moneyline first 5 innings (+120 DK)

Kansas City shouln't be this big of an underdog considering the starting pitching advantage they have in Game 2. Cole Ragans has been lights out with 11 hits allowed, one earned run and 20 strikeouts in his last 19.0 innings of work, while Carlos Rodon has surrendered seven home runs in his last six starts and ranks in the fourth percentile in barrel rate (11.0 percent) this season. Current Yankees hitters are batting just .095 with a .238 xwOBA against Ragans, so we'll back the Royals to jump out to an early lead.

Salvador Perez over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-115 DK)

Rodon gives up a ton of hard hits, line drives and fly balls because he throws his 4-seam fastball nearly 50 percent of the time. That isn't a smart strategy against Perez, who has a .295 xBA, a .656 xSLG and a 55.0 percent hard-hit rate against 4-seamers this season. In 26 career at-bats against Rodon, Perez is batting .500 and slugging .885 with three home runs and a double, so we like his chances in this one.