Week 7 NFL underdog report: Don't bet against Chiefs HC Andy Reid

The Indianapolis Colts were the only NFL team to score an upset in Week 6. Surely, we can do better than that in Week 7. Odds via ESPN Bet .

Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers (-2)

Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is 21-4 following a bye week, the best mark of any coach in NFL history. If that’s not enough to sway you, consider the 49ers injury report.

Wide receiver Deebo Samuel was limited in practice with a wrist injury this week while teammate Jauan Jennings missed two practices with a hip injury. Running back Jordan Mason is also still dealing with a shoulder injury that put him on the sidelines for much of last week’s game against the Seattle Seahawks.

All three are listed as questionable for Sunday’s Super Bowl LVIII rematch. At the moment, only Kansas City’s JuJu Smith-Schuster carries a questionable tag for his team. Smith-Schuster logged a full practice on Wednesday before popping up on the injury report with a hamstring injury.

Only the Baltimore Ravens gain more yards per game (453.7) than the 49ers (420.0) but the undefeated Super Bowl champions still have a top-10 defense and appear to have the 49ers’ number with four straight wins (including a pair of Super Bowls) in their last four meetings.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5)

Did oddsmakers miss Detroit’s 38-point victory over the Dallas Cowboys last weekend? While the Vikings had a week off following a 23-17 victory over the New York Jets in London, the Lions were busy putting up 492 yards and 47 points on “America’s Team.”

Minnesota is one of two unbeaten teams in the NFL right now but no one expects them to go undefeated. Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold completed 14 passes for a season-low 179 yards with no touchdowns and one interception against the Jets this past Sunday, posting his worst quarterback rating as a starter (50.3) since 2022.

More importantly, Vikings running back Aaron Jones suffered a hamstring injury against the Jets and remained limited in Thursday’s practice. If he can’t go, backup running back Ty Chandler will look to carry the team after gaining just 30 yards on 14 carries in relief of Jones two weeks ago.

Of course, Minnesota’s defense has been excellent all year, giving up just 15.2 points per game under coordinator Brian Flores. But the Lions aren’t far behind with 18.2 yards allowed per contest. They’ve also gained the third-most yards (416.0) and scored the most points (30.2) per game of any team. That could spell trouble for the Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium.

Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)

Green Bay is averaging the fourth-most yards (400.8) per game this year but the third-ranked Texans defense allows just 277 yards per game to opponents. The Packers won their last two games, but were favored in both matchups. Houston, meanwhile, has three straight wins including an upset victory over the Bills in Week 5.

With Nico Collins (the league’s leading receiver) on the IR in Week 6, the Texans got a pair of touchdowns and 134 combined yards from receivers Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs. Plus 102 rushing yards from running back Joe Mixon, who had missed three straight games with an ankle injury.

Houston scored a season-high 41 points last week and is clearly a better team with Mixon in the lineup. Green Bay's Josh Jacobs may be the NFL’s fifth-leading rusher with 464 total yards, but only three running backs average more yards per game (95.3) than Mixon, who could be the key to an upset victory.