Thad’s Three Things: Bills v. Cardinals

We are back! Season opener is here. Three things on my mind as we all get excited to watch Bills football that counts…

Who? When? Where?

I’m dying to know how the Bills are going to rotate their pass catchers. This goes for all of them.

Mack Hollins is listed over Keon Coleman on the depth chart. Does that mean he’s going to play more? What kind of snap count will Khalil Shakir end up getting? What does Curtis Samuel’s role look like? How much does Joe Brady roll with two tight ends? Even the running backs are included here. Both Ty Johnson and Ray Davis have done enough to show they merit touches.

We’ve been hearing for weeks that this offense is going to be “everybody eats”. That’s all well and good, but what really might matter is how often everybody even gets to sit at the table. Even if Brady and the coaching staff has confidence in a wider variety of weapons that the average NFL team, some players are going to emerge and some will prove less dependable. That’s what I’m most interested over the first month or so of the season. And it might take that long to get any real answers here.

Preseason Week 4

The Cardinals defense looks, on paper, Charles Barkley-level turrible.

Of the 12 listed starters on Arizona’s depth chart, only four were either day one or two draft picks. Only five of those starters were starters previously for two consecutive seasons. There are only two players that have ever had even a five-sack season. Those two players combined for all of three five-sack seasons and the most either had in one year was seven.

It would be one thing if those numbers described a defense full of first and second year players with oodles of upside. That’s not the case. The front seven has a combined 35 NFL years of experience with no one any earlier in their career than year four.

The secondary is the strength of the defense, led by legit star safety Budda Baker. There are also a couple of second year players who could pop. Arizona could also end up with the worst defense in the NFL.

Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane have both said in the last week that they wished the first team offense had more preseason reps together. They might get them on Sunday.

The Von-undrum

There is probably not a question with more potential reasonable answers than what Von Miller is going to look like this year. Miller had plenty of promising flashes at St. John Fisher, but he doesn’t play preseason. So, it’s been a while since we’ve seen the sure Hall of Famer in a competitive situation.

A healthy and dangerous Miller would go a looooong way toward improving the outlook of this Bills season. Outside of Miller, Greg Rousseau seems the only plausible candidate to be an elite edge rusher. Usually, that’s not something that happens for the first time in year four. Only six of the top 20 active sack leaders had their first 10-sack season after their third season and four of those did it in the first year with a new team.

That leaves Miller, who looked like the elite, game changing edge he’s been his whole career before the ACL injury in 2022. The guy who played last year might not have belonged in the NFL. Even if they can get 75% of the old Miller, Buffalo’s pass rush might be plenty effective rolling waves of 6-8 sack rushers. Along with Rousseau, A.J. Epenesa and Dawuane Smoot have proven capable of playing to that level.

Of course, 100% Miller would be better and anything between that and what we saw last year seems possible.

Betting Things

Last year, I finished 11-8 and had you ahead 5.5 units picking a prop bet from the Bills game each week. Anytime you end up ahead of Vegas, it’s a good year. Three games ahead might get me a shoulder injury from patting myself on the back.

I don’t have a good read on this game, so just gonna play it simple. I’m taking the over.

We’ve already discussed how poor the Arizona defense is. Their offense might be pretty good. We’ll get to that in a second. Buffalo’s defense has questions up the spine with new starters at safety and linebacker. Bobby Babich is calling defensive signals for the first time ever. Smoot is a question mark to play. There are vulnerabilities on this side of the ball.

The offense will probably be the more talented unit no matter which team has the ball. Let’s bet on points. The line is over 47.5 for -102 at FanDuel. One warning: the Bills have not played an opener since 2014 where both teams scored 20 points. Only the Jets (2016) and Broncos (2018) haven’t played one of those games in the last five years. A weird streak for sure and one I’m hoping ends on Sunday.

The Pick

I’ve thought for weeks this is a sneaky tough game for the Bills. Arizona only went 4-13 last year, but they were a pain in the neck when Kyler Murray came from injury. The Cardinals probably also have the best two weapons on the field. Marvin Harrison, Jr. is the best receiver to come out of the draft in over a decade. Tre McBride is a ridiculously good young tight end who averaged 6.6 catches for 65 yards over the last ten games of 2023.

There’s no need for the Bills to take their foot off the gas in this game. Just keep scoring. That also means being efficient in the red zone. Buffalo might have to survive another Hail Murray attempt, but I think they get it done. Give me the Bills 31-26 .

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