The quarterback position is deeper than ever in fantasy football. Someone who just posted the highest YPA in NFL history isn't being drafted as a top-10 QB, while a four-time MVP winner with a star at WR is going at QB20.
Justin Herbert has been the QB8 on average over his four years in the league, yet he's the QB19 in 2024. Deshaun Watson is a few seasons removed from being arguably the best player in the league, is still just 28 years old and runs; he's being drafted as the QB23 on Yahoo. Justin Fields has been mostly undrafted but will have legitimate top-five upside if/when he becomes Pittsburgh's starter.
The rookie class was absolutely loaded. Superflex leagues figure to start becoming more popular in the future as a result.
Running quarterbacks remain a cheat code in fantasy; among 27 QBs who had 100+ carries over the past 10 seasons, 41% finished as top-three fantasy quarterbacks while only three finished outside the top 12.
Tua Tagovailoa led the NFL in passing yards and threw the fifth most touchdowns last year but finished as the QB19 in fantasy points per game. Anthony Richardson outscored Tagovailoa's weekly average while playing just 17 snaps in Week 2. Jalen Hurts would drop from the QB2 down to QB16 if you removed his tush-push touchdowns last season. Josh Dobbs was traded twice and got just 5.9 YPA (averaging 189.5 passing yards) yet finished as a top-five fantasy QB in 25% of his starts last year.
Waiting on quarterback is a perfectly fine strategy in 2024 because of the depth (assuming not Superflex), but the optimal strategy is drafting a quarterback who possesses more upside with their legs. And if one of the running QBs get injured, the replacement level will remain high on waiver wires given the depth of the position.
There's no right or wrong way to attack quarterback in 2024 with so many options, but you'll have a real advantage at a more projectable position if you draft a dual-threat QB this season.
One player at the position you want to leave your draft with and why: Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Fantasy points per dropback is one of the best future indicators of fantasy performance, and Richardson just recorded the most FP/DB since Lamar Jackson's historic 2019 season. Richardson averaged 29.2 fantasy points per four quarters as a rookie and matched C.J. Stroudin weekly top-five finishes despite playing just 10 quarters.
Richardson continued to show a strong ability to avoid sacks like he did in college, and last year's full-season rushing pace would've led all quarterbacks in rush yards (925), rush TDs (26!), attempts (170) and designed runs (111). He easily paced the league in designed rush rate in the red zone and doesn't plan on changing his playing style in Year 2.
Richardson has a limited NFL sample and appears to enter 2024 with a heightened injury risk but the other Tier 1 fantasy quarterbacks all have question marks as well, and none possess AR's ceiling. Shane Steichen is a certified QB guru, and the Colts play indoors at an incredibly high pace (top-five in plays per game with Richardson last year). Indianapolis is loaded with athletic weapons and has two legit wide receivers and a top-five offensive line. Richardson will also likely improve during his second year in the league and be far better versed in Steichen's offense.
Richardson has as much fantasy upside as any quarterback in the league, yet he’s available rounds after others go off the board.
If you miss out on Richardson (or want to avoid his health risk), Kyler Murray is your clear next target.
One sleeper whom you expect to smash their ADP: Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
Daniels may be less of a "sleeper" after his impressive preseason debut, but he remains plenty capable of smashing his current ADP (108.6). Last season in college he averaged the second-most fantasy points per game (40.2) since 2016 and the second-most fantasy points per dropback since 2014. Daniels averaged 60+ rushing yards and scored 34 rushing touchdowns during his college career, and Kliff Kingsbury helped Kyler Murray finish as a top-10 QB as a rookie. Kingsbury's scheme ranked first in situation-neutral pace and no-huddle rate during his four seasons in Arizona while producing runs against light boxes at a league-high rate.
Daniels is a truly elite runner who led all NCAA quarterbacks last year in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.72) while leading all Power Five QBs in rushing yards (1,250), YPC (10.4), scrambles (55) and PFF Rushing Grade (92.4 — the best ever). Running not only increases a fantasy quarterback's upside but also his floor, and Daniels is likely to run as much as any QB in the league as a rookie.
Daniels is unquestionably an injury risk, but high-upside picks (assuming not Superflex) make a lot of sense with the quarterback position deeper than ever. I rank the rookie as QB8 in fantasy.
One fade you expect to fall way short of their ADP: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Burrow suffered a rare season-ending wrist injury last year no NFL QB has ever experienced before. He was having "good days and bad days" in May and still isn't throwing three days in a row. Burrow has a sneaky extensive injury history, and he's also become a check-down artist since opposing defenses started employing two-high safeties at a high rate.
He ranked 38th in downfield passing rate in 2022 and 32nd in intended air yards per attempt last season, and reports out of Bengals camp suggest more of the same in 2024. Quarterbacks can be successful with a low aDOT, but truly elite fantasy production becomes a lot tougher (see: Patrick Mahomes), especially without running.
Burrow was terrific after Cincinnati's bye when healthy last season, and it's possible Cincinnati passes more frequently with Joe Mixon gone. But Burrow is unlikely to run much at this stage of his career, and he's managed just 6.98 YPA since 2022 (26 games) while consciously throwing underneath far more. Burrow must also face the Ravens, Steelers and Browns' defenses 35% of his schedule. He's the QB8 in Yahoo drafts.
Burrow (ADP: 56.7) shouldn't be drafted ahead of Murray (who could easily finish with more fantasy points even if Burrow were to win MVP) or 30 picks before Brock Purdy.
Top-12 QB Rankings
1) Anthony Richardson
2) Josh Allen
3) Jalen Hurts
4) Lamar Jackson
5) Kyler Murray
6) Patrick Mahomes
7) C.J. Stroud
8) Jayden Daniels
9) Brock Purdy
10) Dak Prescott
11) Joe Burrow
12) Jordan Love
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