Welcome to the first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff.
In anticipation of the first four-round postseason in college football history, we’re counting down our predicted playoff field as the season approaches. The top five conference champions in the CFP selection committee’s rankings will make the playoff and the rest of the field will be filled out by seven at-large teams. Who will lift the national championship trophy on Jan. 20 in Atlanta?
Previous previews: Nos. 25-13, 12, 11
No. 10 Florida State
2023 record: 13-1, 8-0 ACC
Last season in 100 words
Everything changed for Florida State against Northern Alabama. After an 11-0 start to the season that included a couple of close early wins against Boston College and Clemson, FSU’s playoff hopes came crashing down with the broken ankle that QB Jordan Travis suffered against their FCS opponent.
The Seminoles went on to beat Florida 24-15 in the regular season finale and the defense dominated Louisville in a 16-6 win in the ACC title game. But FSU’s offensive struggles without Travis were enough bump them out of the four-team playoff and many of the team’s key contributors opted out of the Orange Bowl loss to Georgia.
Why Florida State can make the playoff
The Seminoles have a lot of top players to replace in their bid to repeat as ACC champions. But we’re confident they’re the favorites to win the conference ahead of Clemson and Miami.
FSU added former Clemson and Oregon State QB D.J. Uiagalelei for his final season of college football. He’s the stopgap replacement for Travis, though you can imagine coach Mike Norvell will tweak the offense to Uiagalelei’s strengths. Uiagalelei hasn’t completed more than 62% of his passes in each of the last three seasons. He could surpass that mark this season.
In addition to Travis, FSU also needs to replace leading rusher Trey Benson and top receivers Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson. The Seminoles added a pair of Alabama transfers in RB Roydell Williams and WR Malik Benson. They both could play key roles right away.
Four of the five starters back on offense are on the offensive line and all four are seniors. That’s big with as much skill position talent as the offense needs to replace.
The defense also needs to replace six starters, but edge rusher Patrick Payton (seven sacks in 2023) and defensive lineman Joshua Farmer (five) are both back. The secondary returns Shyheim Brown and Fentrell Cypress and last season’s third-leading tackler DJ Lundy is back at middle linebacker.
Key player
RB Lawrance Toafili
Toafili is back for a fifth season at Florida State and could be poised for a breakout season. Benson led the team with 906 yards and 14 TDs a season ago, but Toafili had 463 yards on just 69 carries. With Benson off to the Arizona Cardinals, Toafili could be the Seminoles’ lead back for the first time.
His 6.7 yards per carry average a season ago wasn’t too far out of line from his career totals either. Toafili averaged a whopping 9.6 yards a carry over 37 attempts in 2020 and has never had a season with fewer than 4.9 yards an attempt. For his career, Toafili has rushed for 1,439 yards and 12 TDs on just 231 carries while catching 67 passes for 690 yards.
Williams’ addition bolsters Florida State’s backfield, but he’s never been a featured back either. He set a career high in carries in 2023 with 111 for 560 yards and five scores.
Biggest game
Oct. 5 vs. Clemson
After beating the Tigers 31-24 on the road last season — in a game that showed Florida State was ready to challenge for the College Football Playoff — Clemson comes to Tallahassee this season. It’s also a matchup that we could see again in the ACC title game if Clemson is able to bounce back from its disappointing 2023.
Clemson isn’t the only significant matchup Florida State has on its schedule this season, however. The Seminoles visit Miami on Oct. 26 and also play at Notre Dame on Nov. 9. It’s the first time in three seasons that FSU has had all three teams on its schedule.
Notre Dame is also a serious playoff contender, but a loss there only hurts Florida State’s chances at an at-large berth to the expanded playoff. With the top five conference champions all getting automatic bids to the College Football Playoff, FSU has a great chance at a first-round bye if it wins the ACC for a second straight season.
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