Sometimes, the best picks of your fantasy football drafts are the ones you never make, and those are the ones we're here to discuss today. There are a number of reasons you might fade a player, whether you don't believe they'll have a pathway to opportunity, projected inconsistencies or, perhaps, you just don't feel a player will return enough value for where they're being drafted.
Most of the players on this list fall into the latter bucket — players that I might really like in 2024 fantasy football leagues if their draft cost was less significant.
Without further ado, I present to you my picks for the All-Fade Fantasy Team in 2024.
QB C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Is C.J. Stroud already a top-five NFL quarterback? You could argue even heading into Year 2 that the answer is a resounding "yes" coming off a season where he fell just 266 yards shy of Andrew Luck's rookie passing yard record. However, Stroud's lack of rushing upside (which translates to a lack of upside for fantasy) has me out on him at his current ADP in the fourth round of 12-team Yahoo drafts.
It's difficult to fade Stroud given the strength of his receiving corps; the opportunity to throw to the trio of Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell is nothing to scoff at, and it should lead to continued efficiency in the passing game, and likely, an increase in touchdown production. But will it be enough to make up the lack of edge he gives in terms of rushing?
Keep in mind that there have been just two quarterbacks to finish top five at the position with fewer than 200 rushing yards over the past five seasons, including Tom Brady (2021) and Aaron Rodgers (2021, 2020). Stroud, meanwhile, has never rushed for over 200 yards in a single season (even dating back to high school). As much as I hate fading a guy I could reasonably see finishing as the real-life NFL MVP in my fantasy leagues, there's just not a high-enough likelihood that he returns significant value being drafted as early as he is.
I'd prefer spending up a round earlier on Lamar Jackson (ADP of 35.5) or holding off for an Anthony Richardson or Kyler Murray who are being drafted after Stroud in Yahoo leagues.
RB Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers
The Packers signed free agent running back Josh Jacobs to what appears to be, at first glance, a pretty lucrative four-year, $48 million contract, which has fantasy managers all-in on his upside for fantasy in 2024 as the 12th RB off the board in Yahoo leagues. However, the team did construct that contract in a way that gives them some insurance on their investment, with a potential out starting in 2025, should Jacobs play as inefficiently as he did in 2023.
On the plus side for Jacobs, this Packers offense is arguably the best he's ever played on, with a quarterback in Jordan Love who's also arguably the best he's ever played with. However, he did show some pretty significant decline in 2023 coming off a career year where he managed to hold the NFL's rushing title.
Here's a look how Jacobs performed in various efficiency metrics last year, with his rank among the 37 running backs with 150+ carries in 2023 in parentheses:
3.5 yards per carry (tied-36th)
2.35 yards after contact per attempt (37th)
12% missed forced tackle rate (tied-37th)
14.2% first-down/touchdown rate (37th)
0.68 fantasy points per touch (31st)
Jacobs may have just had a down year, but he also ranks eighth among active running backs in career rush attempts despite being just 26 years old. Is this really a player you want to bet on with your second or third picks in fantasy drafts? Sure, the upside might be great, but coming off a down year with a talented running back like MarShawn Lloyd playing behind him, it isn't a bet I want to make with such an early pick.
RB De'Von Achane, Miami Dolphins
This is the fade I feel least confident listing here, as De'Von Achane lit the world on fire as a rookie, but there are several reasons to give pause before drafting him considering his ADP of 27.2. That makes him one of the first players off the board, on average, in Round 3, and depending on your moves in the first two rounds, potentially the RB1 on your roster.
The first of those concerns comes from the depth of the Miami Dolphins' RB depth chart... which is exceedingly rich, both in talent and speed. Achane will continue to compete for touches with veteran Raheem Mostert, who tied Christian McCaffrey to lead the league in scrimmage touchdowns just last season. Then there's the new addition of fourth-round rookie Jaylen Wright (whom the Dolphins traded a 2025 third-round pick in order to draft), who has the perfect size (5-foot-11, 210 pounds) and speed (4.38-second 40-yard dash) to complement Mike McCarthy's offense to perfection.
In short, the depth in Miami will undoubtedly make projecting this offense a nearly impossible task on a weekly basis. Achane led the league with 1.49 fantasy points per touch last year (compared to CMC, who ranked third in the league with 1.17), so any projected regression in efficiency in that area would almost have to be countered with an increased workload. Any volatility in his weekly workload will make for some ups and downs, but those are a bit more difficult to come to terms with once you also take a look at his track record of injuries in his rookie season.
Though it's typically Mostert that is regarded as the "injury prone" asset in this backfield, he's actually been fairly healthy during his two seasons in Miami, missing just three total games due to injury. Achane is a smaller back at 5-foot-9 and 188 pounds, and durability was a major concern for him in Year 1, having missed six total games as a rookie dealing with shoulder and knee injuries. Given the high quality options in the Dolphins backfield, it would be a surprise to see Achane yield a 200+ touch campaign, which is what he'll need if he sees any decline in efficiency in Year 2. No thanks.
WR Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
There's a huge mismatch in my value of Chris Olave as an NFL wide receiver versus where I feel he ranks in fantasy, and a big reason for that mismatch is the quarterback play in New Orleans. Derek Carr enters his second year with the team in 2024, and though he'll have an opportunity to work under new OC Klint Kubiak, there's still plenty of reasons not to go all-in on Olave as the WR12 off draft boards.
In Kubiak's lone season as an offensive coordinator with the Vikings back in 2021, the offense ranked 11th in pass attempts, 11th in passing yards and ninth in passing touchdowns... but let's not forget — that was with the ever-underrated Kirk Cousins as his quarterback, who thrown more passing touchdowns than Carr in each of the past seven seasons. In that span, Cousins has 198 passing touchdowns to Carr's 161, despite having played eight fewer games. Carr has exceeded 25 passing touchdowns just once dating back to 2017 — a feat Cousins would have likely achieved in every single one of his last seven seasons, if it weren't for his season-ending Achilles injury just last year.
TL;DR: Derek Carr is not anywhere near the level of QB that Kirk Cousins is, so to expect Kubiak's system to magically fix the offense (and Carr's lack of upside, specifically) isn't an assumption we can take for granted.
Olave has been excellent through his first two seasons, ranking in the 91st percentile among wide receivers in separation rate against single coverage and 94th percentile with a 2.23 yards per route run average per PFF. Since he was drafted, he ranks 12th among wide receivers in targets and 16th in receptions and receiving yards and 32nd in receiving touchdowns. With the emergence of Rashid Shaheed in the offense as a viable WR2, as well as the continued presence of Alvin Kamara as a receiver and do-it-all juggernaut Taysom Hill in the mix for end zone work, it's hard to envision him taking a large enough step forward to exceed his ADP in a meaningful way.
WR Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
Miami fans, avert your eyes! Another Dolphin has made the All-Fade list. (I'm sorry.) This fade is certainly not due to a lack of talent, but rather some concerns for his health history that have me concerned that he may not return his fourth-round value in fantasy drafts.
Is there upside drafting Jaylen Waddle, the WR2 for one of the NFL's most efficient passing offenses? Absolutely. We saw that just last year, when he posted 21+ fantasy points on two separate occasions, yielding a top-five weekly finish at the position in each of them. However, in between those big days were plenty of disappointments, including three missed games due to injuries (concussion, ankle sprain) and a handful of others where he was on and off the field with bumps and bruises.
Now, Waddle enters 2024 with similar concerns, having dealt with a reportedly minor undisclosed injury, having missed some practices as he works through it. Starting off the season less than healthy is a red flag for me given Waddle's overall volatility, having managed 10 or more fantasy points in just half of his regular season games last year. I'm out as his current ADP of 39.9.
TE Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals
There's no doubt that Trey McBride's sophomore campaign was a tremendous one. Having emerged as a primary receiving option for the Cardinals amidst a slew of injuries, McBride managed an 81-825-3 campaign that had him ranked as the overall TE4 in Weeks 10-18 once Kyler Murray returned to the active lineup.
McBride offered a lot to fantasy managers, incredibly leading all tight ends with 2.03 yards per route run over the season with the 12th-highest yards after the catch per reception average (5.3). There are reasons to believe that he should continue to build on that efficiency in Year 3 with perhaps some more scoring potential with Murray another year out from injury and and the offseason addition of star rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. The team could also have some more scoring opportunities, having ranked 24th in red zone plays (147) just last season.
All of that is to say that while I think McBride's breakout was the real deal and project consistency in his production from last year, I do think fantasy managers are underrating the potential for a decreased target share alongside Harrison Jr. that could limit his overall upside. McBride is being drafted as the TE4, late in the fourth round of 12-team leagues based on Yahoo ADP. That means you'll be passing on assets like WR Tank Dell, RBs Kenneth Walker III or Aaron Jones, or even a tried and true option like Mark Andrews in order to draft him. At that cost and with the uncertainties of how the target share shakes out with MHJ in the mix, I'm out.
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