As NASCAR returns from its Olympic break, here's what's at stake in the push to the playoffs

The NASCAR Cup Series returns after a two-week Olympic break Sunday night at Richmond.

There are just four races to go before the 10-race playoffs begin. The schedule to end the regular season looks a little bit different too. The playoffs start a week later than usual thanks to the Olympics, and Watkins Glen doesn’t appear on the schedule until the postseason. Michigan follows Richmond, with the typical regular-season finale at Daytona before this year’s regular-season finale at Darlington.

If you’ve forgotten what’s at stake over the next month, we’ve got you covered. Here’s a refresher ahead of Sunday’s race.

Already locked in

Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick, Brad Keselowski, Alex Bowman, Joey Logano, Daniel Suarez, Austin Cindric

With 12 drivers visiting victory lane already and 16 playoff spots available, there will be a maximum of 16 winners during the regular season. That guarantees that each of the drivers listed above are in the playoffs.

Larson leads the Cup Series with four wins and is also atop the points standings despite missing the Coca-Cola 600 because of the delayed Indianapolis 500. Hamlin and Bell are tied with three wins apiece and Blaney is the only driver with two wins. Everyone else has just one win.

In good shape

Martin Truex Jr. (653 points)

Truex is in the midst of another weird season. He’s seventh in the points standings but doesn’t have a win and has just four top-five finishes despite leading 461 laps. He’s had some incredibly bad luck in his final full-time season. And yet he feels like a title contender if he can get a win or two.

That win could come Sunday at Richmond. Truex is one of the favorites at the short track and has three wins there since the start of the 2019 season.

In … at the moment

Ty Gibbs (587), Chris Buescher (562), Ross Chastain (552)

As you can see from the points totals of the three drivers above, Truex is way, way, way ahead of them. Unless there are two new winners at Richmond and Michigan, Truex could conceivably clinch a playoff spot without a victory with two races to go before the playoffs.

Gibbs has struggled lately and needs to rebound to keep his spot in the playoffs. He’s fallen from seventh to 11th over the summer and has finished outside the top 20 in five of his last seven races. The lone bright spot in that stretch is a third at Chicago — and there are no more road courses before the playoffs begin.

Buescher reeled off three wins at the end of the regular season last year. We’re not going to rule something like that out this year, even if it’s improbable. Chastain has just two top-five finishes and hasn’t been much of a factor this season. But his ability to avoid terrible finishes has been massive.

On the outside with a real chance

Bubba Wallace (545)

Wallace is just seven points back of Chastain and should be a factor at both Michigan and Daytona. He hasn’t finished lower than 13th since he was 34th at New Hampshire and was fifth at Indianapolis. We think Wallace gets into the postseason. And Chastain could be the odd man out without a win.

Need a win

Chase Briscoe (469), Kyle Busch (440), Todd Gilliland (434), Michael McDowell (404)

Everyone else behind them has fewer than 400 points. It feels a little incomprehensible that Busch is on this list, but it’s been a disastrous second season at Richard Childress Racing for the two-time Cup Series champion. He hasn’t finished in the top five in the last 11 races and has just one top-10 finish since that fourth-place at Dover. In that span he’s failed to finish five races — four via crash — and has finished outside the top 20 seven different times. There’s little reason to believe that Busch will find the speed to make the playoffs at this point. Maybe we’ll be surprised.

Briscoe is the top driver in Stewart-Haas Racing’s final season before he heads over to Joe Gibbs Racing to replace Truex. He’s tailed off since finishing second at New Hampshire. Gilliland hasn’t finished in the top five all season but is outpacing his teammate McDowell. If we had to pick any of these four drivers to win, it’d be Busch. But it would be a very small wager.