You don't always have to bank on identifying the next hot sleeper to nab some of the best values in your fantasy football drafts. Sometimes, the very best values are those coming off a down year. Here are six players primed for a bounceback season.
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray wasn't rushed in his return from a torn ACL that suffered in the 2022 season, and given the personnel he had to play with, it's probably a good thing. He got to play just four of his eight games with starting wide receiver Hollywood Brown last year. He was then throwing to a mismatched collection of wide receivers including Greg Dortch, Rondale Moore and an oft-injured Michael Wilson. Murray made do though, utilizing then-second-year tight end Trey McBride as his primary receiving option to finish the year ranked as the QB9 in fantasy points per game.
Murray also continued to showcase his ability as a rusher in 2023, which should have fantasy managers more than excited for his Konami Code upside. Despite returning from a season-ending knee injury, Murray still averaged 30.5 rushing yards per game — a pace that actually outpaced his production back in 2021, when he ranked as the QB4 in fantasy points per game.
Considering this aspect of his game, the addition of polished rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. and the return of Trey McBride for his third NFL season, Murray is in great shape for a bounceback season.
Aaron Jones, RB, Minnesota Vikings
Typically, recency bias is the ultimate enemy for fantasy football managers, as hot finishes to a player's previous season often cloud our judgement and projections moving forward. That is somehow not the case for new Minnesota Vikings running back Aaron Jones, who's being currently drafted as the RB19 in Yahoo leagues.
After Jones' absurdly slow start to the year, having managed several injuries on the season, it seems fantasy managers have given up on his upside. But why? He closed out his final season with the Packers notching five consecutive 100-yard rushing games, averaging 5.7 yards per carry and a whopping 18.16 fantasy points per game.
Fantasy managers are massively undervaluing Jones heading into a new offense.
With questions at quarterback between Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy, it seems reasonable that the Vikings should lean pretty heavily on the run game with Jones in charge of it all. Jones has limited competition working behind him, with third-year back Ty Chandler as the front-runner for the RB2 job. Expect Jones to dominate touches and return to form as an efficient runner and productive receiver out of the backfield to return to fantasy dominance, even at the ripe age of 29.
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor had plenty of upside when he was on the field in 2023 ... it was just a matter of when he was actually able to find the field. The 2021 rushing leader played just 10 games, starting the year by missing the first four games on the PUP list and another three games during the fantasy football playoffs, out with a thumb injury.
Despite the inconsistency in terms of his availability and the loss of starting quarterback Anthony Richardson, Taylor managed to finish as an RB1 in five of his games. This year, both players are fully healthy and ready to boost each other's upside in terms of efficiency. Taylor will be running behind a top-five offensive line that could help him live up to his ADP of 9.8 with ease.
Let's not forget that the last time Taylor played a full season in 2021, he finished the year with 2,171 scrimmage yards and 20 touchdowns — the overall RB1 on the season. He still has the talent and upside to do it, projecting health for the 2024 season.
Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
While fantasy football managers are hinging their seasons on second-year Rams WR Puka Nacua — who is still being drafted as the WR8 off the board despite being week-to-week with a knee injury suffered in training camp — my sights are set on prime bounceback candidate Cooper Kupp as one of the best values in fantasy this year.
Kupp heads into his age-31 season now healthy after an injury-riddled 2023 campaign, starting off the year on injured reserve with a hamstring injury and eventually coming down with an ankle sprain in Week 11 that had him at less than 100%. Those injuries made it difficult to contextualize his season-long performance, posting career lows in yards after the catch per reception (5.3), yards per route run (1.77) and passer rating when targeted (91.4).
Word was already overwhelmingly positive that Kupp was making a comeback as the center point of the Rams offense, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN reported earlier this month. Now, Nacua's injury will make that more of a necessity than ever in Sean McVay's high-octane offense, with plenty of upside to outplay his current WR15 ADP WR15.
Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It's not often that a wide receiver coming off a 1,000-receiving-yard campaign is penned as a "bounceback" candidate, but alas, Chris Godwin is that guy. Though he was healthy and active for a full 17-game slate in 2023, Godwin wasn't much help to fantasy managers, averaging just 9.86 fantasy points per game — his lowest PPG average since his second NFL season in 2018.
Godwin's efficiency took a significant hit across the board last year, averaging his fewest yards after the catch per reception (4.5) since his second season and the second-lowest passer rating when targeted of his career (90.6). What may have accounted for that drop in efficiency was his alignment, having played just 37.4% of snaps out of the slot in 2023 after playing no fewer than 63.4% of snaps there over each of the prior four seasons.
New Buccaneers OC Liam Cohen has announced his intent to get Godwin back into a full-time slot role this season — a move Godwin has praised as he announced his comfortability level playing over the middle of the field. Getting him back into his most natural position on the field gives him a chance to enjoy enough fantasy success to outplay his current ADP of WR35.
Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons
It feels like every year Kyle Pitts winds up on a bounceback candidate list ... but I swear, this time, it's the real deal (hopefully). There's no arguing that things fell flat for Pitts after becoming just the second rookie tight end in NFL history to post a 1,000-yard season. Not only did he deal with poor quarterback play, having ranked dead last among 40 qualifying tight ends with a 67.5% catchable target rate per PFF, but he also dealt with a season-ending knee injury in 2022 that lingered through his 2023 campaign.
Reports are that Pitts has dominated through training camp to this point, in addition to a huge upgrade at Kirk Cousins, who has produced plenty of viable receiving options while under center with his ability to deliver an accurate ball from the pocket. Just last season, T.J. Hockenson earned 66 of Cousins' 302 total targets.
Cousins himself knows Pitts' upside and appears to be actively challenging him to reach that potential heading into 2024. Pitts is an elite athlete who now has a quarterback more than capable of delivering him the football on schedule. This should maximize his ability to generate yards after the catch, which has been an aspect of his game we haven't been able to capitalize on over his last two seasons.
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