LSU's preseason win total still rests somewhere between an implied 9 or 9.5 at every major sports book. With 9 (at almost dead even money) still being readily available, LSU looks like they could be a pretty safe bet to prove doubters wrong heading into the 2024 season.
Why LSU will prove the doubters wrong
Every conversation concerning LSU's success this season is going to have to begin and end with Garrett Nussmeier. Can he be the next Jayden Daniels? No. Nussmeier does not have the legs to be Jayden Daniels, but he doesn't need to be him. Nussmeier has been developing and waiting his turn to explode for over three years now at LSU. And he certainly looked more than ready to dominate the SEC in the bowl game against Wisconsin last season when he tossed nearly 400 yards passing.
And it's not just Nussmeier on offense. They have a legit six wide receivers who have be pressing to start since the spring with returning star Kyren Lacy likely leading the pack. Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. may be gone, but the talent remaining there is immense. When you mix the quarterback with strong wide receivers, and then you realize that LSU brings back four starters on the offensive line--two possible 2025 first round picks among them--it becomes pretty clear the offense is in an incredible place. But how will the offense fair going up against a "tough" SEC schedule?
LSU 2024 Schedule
USC (23)
Nicholls
at South Carolina
UCLA
South Alabama
Ole Miss (6)
at Arkansas
at Texas A&M (20)
Alabama (5)
at Florida
Vanderbilt
Oklahoma (16)
At first glance, playing five ranked teams (via the coaches poll). doesn't look so easy for LSU. However, the only ranked team they don't play at home is Texas A&M this season. Getting USC (a fake ranked team anyway) at a neutral site, then Ole Miss, Alabama, and Oklahoma at home gives them an excellent shot at beating any one of them given the home field advantage LSU possesses.
USC is coming off a worse defensive season than LSU as they're trying to replace half their starters on that side of the ball this year. Oklahoma is starting a freshman quarterback and has quite a mess to sort through at offensive line . Texas A&M can never get out of their own way and will be installing new systems and a new head coach. Ole Miss and Alabama will be tough, but they're not invincible. The offense and the schedule look like strong positives for LSU.
However, if LSU does fall short this season it's going to be due to the defense. As mentioned earlier, the Tigers ranked 109th in yards per play last season, giving up well over 400 yards per game. Blake Baker's defense should in theory help the team take a step in the right direction, but there are still personnel questions.
The defensive line returns several key contributors on the outside from a year ago, so the pass rush pressures may still not be there at a high rate. As camp has opened it looks like Sage Ryan is moving back to cornerback (was with the safeties some this spring), which means the team may roll with inexperience (Jordan Allen or a freshman) and transfers (Jardin Gilbert) at safety.
If the defense is going to step up LSU is going to need linebacker Harold Perkins, Sage Ryan, and Major Burns (at the important "star" position) to make big plays every single week. The true freshman class is looking unbelievably good on defense too, but they still lack experience.
True freshman PJ Woodland at corner, Dashawn Spears at safety, five star Dominick McKinley at defensive tackle, and Gabriel Reliford off the edge have all looked like they could contribute this season. If they step up that just adds more fuel to the fire that suggests LSU could be in for a special season as the Tigers cruise to 10+ wins.
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