San Bernardino County secession from California 'unnecessary' and 'unlikely,' new study shows

When San Bernardino County voters narrowly approved Measure EE in 2022, it authorized the county government to explore the idea of seceding from the state of California if the region wasn't getting its fair share of state resources.

Turns out, it is.

This week, the county government revealed the results of a study conducted by the Blue Sky Consulting Group that shows the county actually receives 9% more state funding per person than other counties statewide.

"For the most part, it shows that San Bernardino County does get on average its fair share," said Fourth District Supervisor Curt Hagman. "The truth is in the numbers, and we're able to show in most cases, or about 50% of the cases, we're getting our fair share by population, or maybe a little more by population."

But Hagman said the report also identified several areas in which the county is not getting its fair share in state funding, including for community colleges, low-income housing and solutions for the homeless. He said outdated state formulas that prioritize money for larger cities is partly to blame.

"We are not getting our fair share for homeless in the county because the formula they use is based on large cities," said Hagman. "So even though we're the sixth largest in California by population, we're not getting that because we don't have a city with more than 300,000 in it.

"So now we're armed with information to go to our state representatives and say, 'Hey, maybe it's time for this formula to be updated for the modern current time period.'"

According to the Blue Sky study, "tax revenues generated in San Bernardino County are likely less than half the revenues generated statewide.

"San Bernardino County is not unique, as many counties (especially non-coastal counties where residents earn lower incomes) receive more in state transfers than they contribute in state taxes."

"The result would therefore be significantly less revenue available to fund state-supported services," if the County were to secede from the state of California.

Hagman said that likely means any chance of seceding, as unlikely and improbable as it sounds anyway, is off the table.

"Secession is not in our best interests at this time," he said. "For one, we can't do it on a local level. It would take the state and federal government to come in and do that. But we are informed now; we're informed leaders and we know how to advocate for the resources we're missing in the county."