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Talking the Tropics With Mike: Heads up Texas & Louisiana - brewing tropical system Western Gulf

By Mike Buresh,

16 hours ago

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Tropics threats for Jacksonville/NE Florida/SE Georgia: No direct impacts from tropical systems *but* onshore flow will increase again this week with rough seas & surf = a high rip current risk.

“Buresh Bottom Line”:

* A tropical system - likely to become “Francine” will develop over the Western Gulf of Mexico with direct impacts to Texas & Louisiana by midweek.

* A couple of tropical waves over the Central & Eastern Atlantic may develop but look to stay far out to sea.

* Some “in-close” development will be possible over the next 1-2 weeks near or along the U.S. east coast.

The Atlantic Basin Overview:

(1) ‘91-L′ - The Caribbean wave I’ve been tracking for the past week reached the Yucatan Peninsula Friday & has made it over the Bay of Campeche. Meanwhile... weak surface low pressure near the coast of Texas has been drifting southward. As hypothesized late last week, it appears these two may interact to gradually develop a tropical system over the far Western Gulf of Mexico. Forecast models have converged on track & intensity with the European & Climavision ‘Horizon’ models joining the GFS & Canadian with a stronger system more to the east which translates into more time over water with a north/northeast movement putting coastal Texas & even Louisiana potentially in line for at least a strong tropical storm if not hurricane by the middle of the upcoming week. It appears a more east position will indeed be the primary variable when it comes to strength. Personally - I favor at least a little more easterly position given a stationary front remains from the Western Gulf all the way to Florida while weak to moderate upper level troughing persists over the Central & Eastern U.S. If ridging stays west while the trough continues over the Eastern U.S. with enough of a softness extending all the way to the Northern Gulf then any tropical disturbance may have the necessary alleyway to move more north & northeast. In any case... folks all along the Gulf Coast - & especially from Texas to Louisiana - should stay up to date on the latest forecasts. Watches may be issued for parts of Texas by Sunday night. Hurricane hunter aircraft will start investigating the system on a regular basis.

(2) We’re also seeing mixed signals regarding a nearly stationary boundary from the Gulf to the Western Atlantic that gets reinforced by a series of upper level troughs & possible low pressure developing at the surface along the front all the way through next week. This could be some “in-close” development anywhere from the Gulf to the far Western Atlantic. Some models indicate the potential for some tropical activity from near Florida northward across the Western Atlantic next week & beyond. Any low pressure that might develop over the Western Atlantic will move east & northeast away from the U.S. But if low pressure forms closer to Florida &/or the Bahamas then impacts would be possible for Florida & the Southeast U.S.

(3) Multiple tropical waves are moving west & northwest between the Caribbean & Africa - something one would expect this time of year. At least one - ‘ 92-L ’ has longer term potential as they rather slowly move west or northwest... the slow movement due to a relatively weak Bermuda high that currently is displaced to the east & northeast over the Atlantic. Such a position favors an alleyway for systems to turn north over the Central Atlantic... as long as the Bermuda High remains in such a state.

Fitting the pattern for an increase in tropical activity is persistent & seasonally strong surface high pressure at northern latitudes from the Central U.S. to the Northwest Atlantic. This high pressure will bring has brought an early taste of fall across the Northern U.S. & may induce general low pressure to the south - a pattern that *could* favor tropical development at southern latitudes. It’s Mother Nature’s constant balancing/compensating act. And it’s likely why we’ve seen forecast models struggle with the overall pattern developing sometimes spurious low pressure areas near & south of of about 35 degrees N.

The experimental Climavision ‘Horizon’ model below for late Wed., Sept. 11th shows a strong tropical cyclone just off the coast of upper Texas & SW Louisiana. The ‘horizon’ trend has been east & stronger:

Very heavy rain for much of the Gulf coast yet again for the upcoming week:

‘Velocity potential anomalies’ below shows massive “sinking” air (brown lines) & overall hostile conditions for tropical development continue across the Atlantic Basin. In such a state, tropical development can occur but overall conditions are not as conducive as when there is overall rising (green lines) air such as much of the Pacific Basin where convection is active. This “pulse” of upward motion should move over the Atlantic Basin over the next few weeks.

REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.

Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage might occur.

The upper oceanic heat content (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean is very high:

Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):

September tropical cyclone origins (early season breeding grounds are the Gulf &/or Western Caribbean:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for September (2 hurricane so far, 3 tropical storms):

Wind shear (red - strong shear; green - low shear):

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa driven by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air = yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that *can* interfere with the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the dust plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable (we’ve already seen this with Beryl & Debby this year). In my personal opinion, there is way too much “hoopla” about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.

2024 names..... “Francine” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18 (the last time this year’s list was used)... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous because of the ‘04 season when Charley, Frances, Jeanne & Ivan - all retired names - hit Florida within a matter of about 6 weeks. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The colors will brighten greatly as the water warms to greater depths deeper into the season: