Nevada's hot housing market weighs on US presidential election

Brittnie Aguirre grew up in Nevada and has always wanted to build her American Dream there: owning a home with her husband and three kids.

But rocketing prices wrought by a years-long real estate boom, have priced her -- and many middle-class Americans -- out of the market, an issue that could weigh heavily in November's presidential election.

"We make the most we've ever made in our lives, but we struggle more than we really ever have, just because the cost of living is absolutely through the roof," Aguirre told AFP.

"It's not even just housing. I mean, have you seen the price of groceries, of gas?"

- The economy -

Aguirre, 29, and her 31-year-old husband live and work in Reno, a fast-growing city in the western state of Nevada.

The state, which President Joe Biden won by just 33,000 votes over Donald Trump in 2020, carries a relatively meager six electoral college votes out of the 270 required to win the White House.

But in this year's knife-edge contest between Kamala Harris and Trump, it is one of a handful of battleground states expected to decide who triumphs.

And American politics is nearly always dominated by the economy, making voters like Aguirre important.

She lived with her in-laws for a year-and-a-half to save for a deposit. But even then -- and with property prices continuing to rise -- more than half the $71,000 post-tax annual family income would be swallowed by a $3,000 monthly mortgage.

Although Aguirre voted for Biden in 2020, disappointment over family finances will play into her decision this year.

"I've never really been a political person until this last year where we have just struggled so much with the economy," she said.

"This time, I want to do more research on the political parties to make a well-informed decision."

-- 'Everything's on sale' --

Reno -- nicknamed "The Biggest Little City in the World" -- is must-win territory for Harris.

The glitzy big city of Las Vegas to the south leans Democratic, while the rolling rural areas of the rest of the state are reliably Republican.

With the two blocs largely cancelling each other out, winner-takes-all Nevada could come down to Washoe County, where Reno sits.

The population here has doubled since 1990, swelled in recent years by an influx of tech workers, following tax breaks to lure employers like Tesla, Panasonic and Apple.

Coming from California, swathes of that workforce have been delighted to find how much more they can afford.

The average house price in Cupertino, California -- where Apple is headquartered -- is over $3 million, according to Zillow.

A single-family home in Washoe, Nevada is $550,000.

For Matt Mireles, who runs an AI start-up, leaving San Francisco for Reno was "a slam dunk."

At 43, he bought himself a 1,900-square-foot (170-square-meter) apartment, with a view of the river in the heart of Reno, for $635,000.

"When you come from California, everything's on sale," he said.

- 'Priced out' -

But the bulk of first-time buyers in Reno are from out of state, says realtor Sam Britt.

"And the locals are angry," he adds.

While new arrivals might consider $550,000 reasonable for a home, that figure is double what it used to be a decade ago.

Add to that the fact that interest rates are near 20-year highs -- the result of central bank action to curb inflation -- and it puts home ownership out of reach for many.

Fellow realtor Sean Burke notes that a seven percent interest rate on a 30-year mortgage is affecting Americans everywhere.

"The middle class has been priced out of a lot of the homes," he said. "It definitely could weigh on the ballot box."

In 2022, the median age of first-time buyers in the United States hit 36, a record, according to the National Association of Realtors.

While the White House has no control over interest rates, and little real influence over inflation, voters tend to blame the sitting administration for their economic difficulties.

And having been Biden's understudy during more than three years that many Americans have seen the promise of home ownership slip out of reach, that might be bad news for Harris.

Andres Villa, who works for Tesla, says he is faced with steep monthly payments for his own home and is tempted by the alternative.

"When Trump was in office, he said a lot of crazy things," he said.

"But it seemed like the economy was running a little bit better."

As Election Day approaches, the latest economic indicators, including decreasing inflation and a likely Federal Reserve rate cut, are increasingly positive.

That could bring a few voters like Villa back to Harris -- and in a swing state, that's all she might need.