It's about that time.
College football is about a month away from kicking off across the United States, which means it's time to make some bold predictions about the 2024 campaign.
Iowa State is among the leaders in the country in returning production, bringing back 20 starters and nearly every major contributor on both sides of the ball. It's setting up to be a successful season for the Cyclones, but just how good will they be?
We have compiled five bold predictions for the Cyclones this season, including how they'll finish in 2024 and players that stand to break out:
1. Iowa State enters final two weeks of season in Big 12 Championship contention
Of the Cyclones' first 10 games, only two stand out as games that the Cyclones aren't set to be favorites: on the road against Iowa and against the Kansas Jayhawks in Arrowhead Stadium.
The other eight include home games against North Dakota and Arkansas State, and six games against opponents the Cyclones were ranked ahead of in the preseason Big 12 poll . Of those eight, on the road against West Virginia is probably the most concerning opponent they will face. The Mountaineers were ranked just one spot below Iowa State in the Big 12 preseason poll.
On any given Saturday, anything can happen. However, the odds say Iowa State has a real chance to be 8-2 entering the final two weeks of the season. Plus, it's not like Kansas or Iowa are unbeatable either, where an upset could give some leeway on other parts of the schedule.
In the final two weeks, Utah and Kansas State await. Both of those teams will have legitimate Big 12 Championship aspirations. Iowa State could have an opportunity to have a "win and you are in" the Big 12 title game situation in the home stretch of the season.
2. Abu Sama becomes first 1,000-yard rusher since Breece Hall
It's crazy to think that it has been since Hall in 2021 that Iowa State has had a 1,000-yard rusher. This season, however, there are many reasons to be optimistic for the run game to rise above its 101st ranking (119.9 rushing yards per game) in the nation last year.
That begins with sophomore Abu Sama, who concluded his freshman season with 614 yards and six touchdowns. He averaged 7.1 yards per carry and put the country on notice with his 276-yard outing against Kansas State in the snow. In that game, he had two 70-yard touchdown runs, the first running back to do that in the Big 12 since Adrian Peterson.
“He’s just a freak athlete,” Iowa State junior linebacker Caleb Bacon said. “His cutting ability, running ability, everything about him. He’s just a great athlete.”
If he continues to build upon that, Iowa State has its next David Montgomery or Hall-like talent in the backfield. The other part of that equation is the offensive line, which returns all of its starters and added depth through the transfer portal.
"I always feel like it starts with the offensive line," Wide receiver Jaylin Noel said. "If you got a good O-line then everything else will come together. Coach (Ryan) Clanton's got those guys ready to roll. We're all confident in their ability and we know they'll be great this season."
With an experienced offensive line and Sama's proven talent, the sophomore should have a big year n 2024.
3. Baylor provides midseason scare for Cyclones in Week 5
The Baylor Bears are in a do-or-die season.
Coach Dave Aranda is firmly on the hot seat, according to every major outlet's projections, including ESPN's. That comes after a brutal 3-9 season where the Bears finished with five consecutive losses, which started with a defeat to the Cyclones (30-18).
However, there's some room for optimism for the Bears this year.
Baylor was a very young team last season and will return six starters on offense and seven on defense, including the entire secondary. They went deep on the transfer portal, adding offensive linemen and Toledo quarterback Dequan Finn. He is an electric dual-threat guy who recorded 2,657 passing yards and 22 passing touchdowns along with 563 yards on the ground and seven rushing touchdowns. Finn has repeated similar numbers over the last three seasons, never falling below 2,000 passing yards or 500 rushing yards.
Along with new offensive coordinator Jake Spavital, who has coached a top-30 or better offensive in five of his last six seasons, this offense can pop in 2024.
This game comes at a weird time for Iowa State on Oct. 5, one week after traveling to Houston, a program in a rebuild, but before the schedule really starts to get tougher with games at West Virginia and home against UCF and Texas Tech.
In other words, Iowa State can't get caught looking ahead here as the Bears could be a pesky team in 2024 with a lot to play for.
4. Several wide receivers will have standout moments in 2024
For a team that lines up in two tight end sets regularly, Iowa State has a lot of intriguing options at wide receiver. Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel will be the top guys in the room, posting over 1,800 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns combined in 2023. But there are a few guys that have been mentioned as potential impact players by their teammates.
We'll start with Daniel Jackson, who had 16 receptions, 260 yards and two touchdowns in 2023. At 6-foot-2, 210 pounds, his talent is drawing some attention.
"He's one of the most gifted wide receivers we have on the team, honestly," Noel said. "He's a physical, bigger receiver that could do pretty much anything you ask him to do. He's real smooth with his route-running, great at the catch point, and can make stuff happen after the catch.
"He's gonna be a very important piece to our success this year."
Mentioned right alongside Jackson was Beni Ngoyi, a 6-foot-4 redshirt freshman who caught one pass in the Liberty Bowl for 46 yards. While he didn't see the field a ton, Noel sees Ngoyi in the same category as Jackson.
"Those two guys are going to help us tremendously this season, being able to go on the field and know exactly what they're doing and going to make plays," Noel said. "It's going to be very special to see those guys work this year."
Transfers Eli Green (North Dakota State) and Isaiah Alston (Army) each bring very unique skills as well. Green is a gadget player who thrives in space with the ball in his hands, while Alston is the big-play threat.
Green arrived ahead of the spring for winter workouts for his teammates to get a look at him, where his speed and utility impressed even the defense.
"Eli's come in and he's done a good job," Iowa State sophomore defensive back Jamison Patton said.
Alston was skilled enough at Army that the Golden Knights attempted to venture outside of the wishbone offense to throw him the ball more often. In four games before injuries shortened his season, Alston was averaging nearly 30 yards a reception in 2023. After starting 2-2 with him, Army lost its next four games with him on the sideline.
Between Jackson, Ngoyi, Green and Alston, there are not enough targets to go around for these four to all stand out consistently. However, Green is an offensive coordinator's dream as the type of guy to design specific plays for and get out in space. Alston, Jackson and Ngoyi are all big-play threats waiting to happen with their unique blends of size and athletic abilities, perhaps as those who can break a game open with an 80-yard reception to stun a team late.
By season's end, Higgins and Noel will lead the team in receiving so long as they stay healthy. Yet, Jackson, Green, Alston and Ngoyi all will have individual moments or games of brilliance to give Iowa State that extra push when needed.
5. Iowa State finishes on the outside looking in of Playoff contention
The way the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff is organized, the four highest-ranked conference champions and the highest-ranked group of five conference champions receive auto bids, while the remaining seven spots are the highest-ranked teams remaining.
We'll exclude the COVID-shortened 2020 season since there was a lot of unusual stuff there, but if you take the final College Football Playoff poll of each season since 2014, you can see which teams would have made the cut under this new format.
Of the 108 different squads that would have made the CFP since 2014, again excluding the COVID year, just seven (6.4%) of them had nine wins. Those seven (Ole Miss and Kansas State in 2014, USC and Florida State in 2016 and Florida, LSU and Penn State in 2018). The rest of the teams had 10 wins or more and there were also several years where 10-win teams from the Power Five conferences were left out. No teams with nine wins or less would have made the CFP under the new format since 2018.
Unless there's a down year across the conferences, 10 wins is the threshold you have to meet, if not exceed. That means Iowa State will have to be at a minimum 9-3 in the regular season and enough would have to have happened in the Big 12 for them to reach the Big 12 title game for a chance at that 10th win. In a world where the top four conference champions get auto-bids without the true Pac-12, the Big 12 champion would be hard-pressed to not be included in that auto-bid selection.
In our first bold take of the season, we placed Iowa State at 8-2 heading into matchups with Utah and Kansas State. Given Utah's returning veterans, including star quarterback Cam Rising, a road game against the Utes is just going to be too tall of a task in 2024. Following it up with a tough rivalry game against a well-coached Kansas State team that will be led by talented youngster Avery Johnson at quarterback, it just seems like the schedule snowballs on them so much at the end.
The final bold prediction is that the Cyclones to go 8-4 and remain just on the outside of CFP contention in 2024. But the Cyclones will have a lot returning in 2025 to set up another run.
Eli McKown covers high school sports and wrestling for the Des Moines Register. Contact him at Emckown@gannett.com . Follow him on Twitter at @EMcKown23.
This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa State football: 5 bold predictions for 2024 season. Can Cyclones win Big 12 title?
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