A look at the power that Independent voters hold in Arizona's Senate race

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Independent voters will shape the path to victory for this year's U.S. Senate race in Arizona. They account for more than one-third of registered voters in the battleground state, and a lot is on the line. Arizona could decide which party controls the U.S. Senate next year. NPR congressional correspondent Claudia Grisales has more from Phoenix.

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CLAUDIA GRISALES, BYLINE: During a hot evening outside a Phoenix cultural center, residents are seeking respite from the day's triple-digit heat with a freedom-day-themed cookout offering free burgers and live music.

(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC)

UNIDENTIFIED SINGER: (Singing, inaudible).

GRISALES: It was also a hotbed of political conversation.

ANDREA WHITING: It was such a big deal to register to vote.

GRISALES: That's Andrea Whiting. Five years ago, she launched the nonpartisan voter registration group Tomorrow We Vote with her husband, Brent. The couple says the biggest trend they're seeing is an explosion of independent voters. Independents claimed the largest share of registrations here last year for the first time since 2015. And the Whitings say, independents could do it again this year.

A WHITING: It's an exciting time. What worked before isn't working anymore.

BRENT WHITING: People who are sick of the two-party system.

GRISALES: Top candidates for Arizona's U.S. Senate seat have noticed. Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego was once known for being to the left of his party on many issues. Republican Kari Lake lost her bid for governor here in 2022 and is known for being very far right. Now they're both trying to court voters in the middle. University of Arizona politics professor Samara Klar is not surprised.

SAMARA KLAR: Making this play to seem independent is very smart for them. That's what they should be doing. Whether they can pull it off convincingly is another question.

GRISALES: Klar says Gallego and Lake are trying to follow the formula for the state's political success stories, which are filled with senators who bucked party labels like the late John McCain and Barry Goldwater. These candidates are running to replace another independent, Kyrsten Sinema, who left the Democratic Party. But Arizona independents can be hard to reach. Klar says they're evenly split between ideological liberals and conservatives.

KLAR: Sort of, like, the Arizona flavor of politics is a little bit rogue, maverick, nonpartisan - whatever use of term you want to use from the past.

GRISALES: Gallego, a military veteran, is showing off his security chops to show he's tough on crime and immigration, while pressuring President Biden to do more. Lake, who has been closely aligned with former President Trump, is trying to soften her former stance to ban access to abortion.

In Phoenix, outside the city's art museum, 24-year-old independent Emma Davidson says those are smart moves.

EMMA DAVIDSON: I think...

GRISALES: And...

DAVIDSON: ...More people, like, connect to that, honestly. Most people that you actually meet are not so extreme. You just hear about the extremes because that's what makes the news.

GRISALES: Davidson is collecting signatures to get independents their own primary, which is nonexistent in this state.

DAVIDSON: Hopefully, this does get approved so then more independents do vote so then we can actually have, like, more options. That's why I want it to be passed, too, because, like, more voters, better options, more choices.

GRISALES: Two miles south of the museum, back at the cookout, Brent Whiting says candidates who are not focusing on independents are doing an injustice to themselves and Arizona.

B WHITING: And if people are not paying attention to that, they're going to lose big.

GRISALES: As Arizona independents look to have the last word on who they'll send to the US Senate, they'll help chart a new path for the state's political landscape that could have national implications.

Claudia Grisales, NPR News, Phoenix, Ariz. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

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