Attack of the Killer Ridge, the death toll for Arizonans is on the rise due to heat-related causes

According to the Arizona Weatherman, high temperatures are on tap in the near future, with a long-wave ridge moving in over the next week and reaching over 100 F for certain locations in Southern Arizona. Additionally, a recent governmental study indicates that heat-related deaths are significantly on the rise in Arizona.

300 mb model data indicating longwave ridge over Arizona for 17 May 2024Photo byWindy.com

A longwave ridge will move over Arizona next week and bring in sweltering high temperatures, particularly by the end of the week. Phoenix can expect upper 90s F on Monday, 13 May 2024, and this will continue until Thursday, peaking out at 100 F, 104 F on Friday, and 106 F on Saturday. Tucson can expect lower to mid-90s F for the same time period and may even break the 100 F mark next Friday and Saturday. This heatwave will continue into the weekend. The hot and dry period prior to the onset of the monsoon is firmly in place over Arizona. These hot and dry conditions will dominate into June.

According to the 2023 Heat Related Deaths Report by the Maricopa County Department of Public Health, there has been a steady increase in heat-related deaths over the last few years in Maricopa County. The data shows a 52% increase in heat-related deaths from 2022 to 2023. Furthermore, from 2015 to 2023, the death rate has increased by more than seven times due to heat-related causes. The majority of the heat-related deaths were reported with outdoor activities, and two out of three deaths were among individuals aged 50 or older. Additionally, substance use was involved in 65% of the deaths. These numbers highlight the importance of planning and knowing your limits for heat in Arizona, specifically in lower desert regions in the southern part of the state.

According to the Arizona Weatherman, officially, 15 June is the start of monsoon season. However, May and June are typically drier and hotter before the monsoon onset, which typically starts by the end of June or the first week in July. This year, in particular, moving into an La Nina cycle will likely produce a hotter and drier summer season going into the 2024 monsoon season. Therefore, expect higher temperatures over the next two months. This is the season to be mentally and physically aware of the forecast weather conditions before engaging in activities outside. According to the report cited above, the older population is more susceptible to heat-related complications that could lead to death. Furthermore, using intoxicating substances outdoors may increase dehydration, poor judgment calls, and, again, increase heat-related death. Lastly, be aware of your physical limitations when conducting outdoor activities such as hiking, biking, and jogging. Also, keep hydrated and bring plenty of water on these outside excursions.

The study also indicated that 67% of outdoor-related heat deaths occurred in an urban setting. Large urban areas have an additional heat island effect due to the large number of blacktop roads or parking lots, which can increase the heat levels even more than surrounding suburban areas. Lastly, the report indicates that 71% of heat-related deaths occurred on days when an excessive heat warning was issued. In 2023, the National Weather Service issued heat warnings for 42 days in Maricopa County. So, please keep in mind the heat warnings being issued, allowing that information to guide decision-making for outdoor activities. Remember, heat can kill, especially if you are in a high-risk category. The bottom line is to heed weather warnings, hydrate, and know your physical limits with high heat conditions; and intoxicating substances do not mix well with heat. Be safe!

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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