Pacific tropical system impact forecast for Arizona during the month of June

According to the Arizona Weatherman, the Eastern Pacific tropics have not impacted Arizona weather in the last two weeks since the start of the East Pacific tropical season, which started on 15 May 2024. What about in the next two to four weeks in June? This tropical update will provide some background information and potential impacts for Arizona in the month of June.

ITCZ East Pacific Tropical RegionPhoto byWindy.com

The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is an area south of Central America in the Pacific where the tradewinds converge, causing a lifting mechanism for thunderstorms to develop. It is also the area where tropical waves track just north of the ITCZ. Please take a look at the picture above. Tropical waves traverse the ITCZ year-round but become more active during the tropical season. These tropical waves are watched for development during the season. Favorable conditions include warm sea surface temperatures over 80 F, weak windshear, upper-level difluence, and other influences like El Nino and La Nina and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).

Sea surface temperatures in the East PacificPhoto byWindy.com

Currently, the sea surface temperatures are still very warm in the 84-88 F range, as we are still in the El Nino pattern. However, according to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), “A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely in the next month. La Niña may develop in June-August.” So, we can expect a cooling of the water temperatures in one to three months. This cooling and added wind shear will have a dampening impact on the tropical storm development as the season moves on.

MJO impacts global, circled area is impacts for East PacificPhoto byNOAA

Another factor to watch is the MJO. In the next two weeks, the MJO will provide a downward vertical motion in the atmosphere, suppressing thunderstorm activity in the Eastern Pacific. However, after 15 June 2024, the MJO pattern shifts to upper-level difluence. This is indicated by the downward yellow and brown colors in the above chart and difluence by the green color on the above chart. How does this impact tropical waves in the Eastern Pacific? In the next week, some tropical wave development is possible but will likely be hindered by the downward motion and will not develop. Therefore, Arizona will not likely have any tropical storms or hurricanes to impact the state or drive moisture up the Gulf of California in the next two weeks.

As this pattern changes to more upper-level difluence in the last two weeks of the month, tropical wave development could become more of an issue. Therefore, increasing chances of tropical wave development into a tropical storm or even hurricane becomes more likely. Currently, it is too far out, and model data is not indicating development at this time, but this will be watched as the potential increases by the end of month.

The bottom line is that tropical moisture influx from tropical systems in the next two weeks for Arizona is very unlikely, but the chances for potential impacts increase during the last two weeks of June. This will be watched closely by the Arizona Weatherman and tropical impacts for Arizona will be provided as needed.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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