Tropical systems in the Pacific and Western Gulf could boost Arizona's monsoon start by late June

The Arizona Weatherman has diligently tracked tropical development in the Eastern Pacific and Gulf of Mexico basins for the past twelve days. As the tropical season advances, it's becoming increasingly likely that a tropical system could form in the Western Gulf of Mexico and South of Central America, potentially leading to more development in the next week to a week and a half. This tropical development could significantly influence Arizona's weather, potentially bringing the much-needed moisture to initiate the monsoon rains by the end of June. This could signal an on-time start of precipitation for the state.

Model tropical system development in the Eastern Pacific on 16 Jun 2024Photo byWindy.com

The Arizona Weatherman first indicated this possibility in an earlier article on 1 Jun 2024, highlighting an increase in the potential for tropical system development in the last two weeks of June. For a more comprehensive understanding of the tropical forecast and an in-depth explanation of how the Eastern Pacific may impact the Arizona monsoon moisture, I invite you to read the article “Pacific Tropical System Impact Forecast for Arizona during the Month of June.”

Two areas of interest in the tropical regions have piqued my interest. The sea surface temperatures in these tropical regions are between 84 F to 87 F, which will provide a good amount of energy for these systems to develop. Lastly, the windshear should diminish, and the Saharan Dust Layer should have a minimal impact. The first is an elongated area of thunderstorms that the models develop into a potential tropical system, such as a depression or tropical storm, in the next week or so. This system will not directly affect Arizona but may develop and move northward, increasing the development of the second potential tropical system in the Western Gulf of Mexico.

Model tropical development in the Western Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday 19 Jun 2024Photo byWindy.com

The second potential tropical system in the Western Gulf of Mexico may develop into a tropical system by Wednesday, June 19, 2024. If named, it would be called Alberto. According to the National Hurricane Center, Potential Alberto has a 30% of development in the next seven days. See the below image for details. With the tropical ingredients becoming more favorable in the next week, this system will be watched for development. Additionally, the model data indicates some of this tropical moisture may get pushed into Eastern Arizona by the 21-22 of June. This may be the beginning of the tropical moisture kicking off the Arizona Monsoon.

Tropical forecast for the Western Gulf of MexicoPhoto byNHC

A caution: this is still a week or more out, and these conditions may change. But this is the first favorable change in the pattern in the last few weeks. This model data has been consistent in depicting these tropical systems to develop. There is hope for an on-time monsoon season for Arizona. This will not cause rain over much of the state, but at least it will start out more in the eastern section of Arizona. As more details develop, the Arizona Weatherman will provide tropical updates as they come.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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