Arizona monsoon thunderstorms continue into next week with a second incoming tropical system

According to the Arizona Weatherman, Tropical Storm Alberto helped kick off the 2024 Arizona Monsoon season, as accurately forecasted by the author. Now, as of 22 June 2024, a second tropical cyclone is brewing in the Gulf of Mexico. Like similar tracked Alberto, this new system will bring in more tropical moisture for Arizona in the next several days.

Tropical Cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico 23 Jun 2024Photo byWindy.com

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), this system has a 50% chance of becoming a Tropical Depression in the next 24 hours before landfall in Mexico. Regardless of its classification, the author predicts it will significantly increase the tropical moisture into Arizona, similar to the previous tropical system. The impacts from this second system will be felt by Monday afternoon into Tuesday, with a new influx of moisture to tap into and produce more convective activity.

Total model precipitation estimates out to 25 Jun 2024.Photo byPivotal Weather

The above image depicts that between now and 25 Jun 2024, Tuesday afternoon, more monsoonal rain showers and thunderstorms will impact the state. Based on the modeling data, it is expected that Cochise, Santa Cruz, Eastern Pima, Graham, Pinal, and Greenlee Counties, including the Mogollon Rim, will receive the bulk of the rain. These storms will produce strong convective gusts, small to larger hail, and localized flooding. The Phoenix Metro, primarily north and east of the area, should get some of this moisture. Tucson, Flagstaff, and other cities on the Rim will get more rain. The western part of the state will not get very much rain out of this next system.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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