Future tropical storm to drench Arizona: Monsoon thunderstorms on the Horizon

The Arizona Weatherman hits the nail on the head for another long-term tropical East Pacific forecast. The article “Future East Pacific hurricanes poised to enhance Arizona's monsoon thunderstorms” correctly forecasted a significant pickup in tropical storm activity in the East Pacific in the first two weeks of August, with some tropical moisture making it into Arizona.

Future Tropical Storm Emilia and influx of moisture on 6 Aug 2024.Photo byWindy.com

First, the East Pacific was very active in the first week of August 2024, with the formation of Tropical Storm/Hurricane Carlotta, Tropical Storm Daniel, Tropical Depression Five-E, and future Tropical Storm Emilia. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has a 70% chance of development in the next few days. Again, the East Pacific has gotten very active in the last week and will continue to do so.

How will this tropical activity impact Arizona? The model data indicates that future Tropical Storm Emilia should form and move northwestward by 6 August 2024, and this storm is looking to cause an influx of tropical moisture to impact Arizona between the 6^th and 8^th of August. In particular, on 6 August, there looks to be a moisture surge impacting southern Arizona over Santa Cruz and Pima Counties and, into the evening hours, expanding northward into Pinal and Maricopa Counties. This could even cause some late evening thunderstorms in the Phoenix Metro area. On August 7, some of that moisture should make it into northwestern Arizona. This residual moisture may even impact the northern section of Arizona into August 8th.

This is an initial tropical moisture influx forecast for Arizona. It looks very promising that this event will happen; however, the actual system has not fully developed at this time. Therefore, the Arizona Weatherman will follow up with more specific monsoon thunderstorm updates over the next few days. Stay tuned for these updates to ensure you have the most current information for your safety and planning.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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