Arizona’s severe monsoon storms shift eastward through the afternoon on Tuesday

According to the Arizona Weatherman, on Tuesday, 13 August 2024, there is a shift to a more eastward projection of Arizona’s monsoon thunderstorms today with the movement of the upper-level ridge over the Pacific. More thunderstorm activity is expected to impact the eastern part of the state through the afternoon into early evening, and the western to south-central areas will have significantly less convective activity today.

Arizona model data for thunderstorm potential on Tuesday, 13 Aug 2024.Photo byWindy.com

The model data indicates upper-level difluence over the northern central and eastern sections of the state, helping provide exhaust to the storms in the afternoon. Additionally, the mid-level steering flow will start out more southwest to northeast, then move more easterly in the afternoon hours. The stability indices are moderate to higher instability, with CAPEs in the 1,800 to 2,000 range, LIs in the -7, with no significant capping, and significant hail indicators. Therefore, expect the potential today for strong gusty winds >60 mph, hail up to one inch, and localized flooding. The areas that are more likely to have stronger storms are Eastern Pima, Santa Cruz, Cochise, Graham, Gila, Coconino, Apache, and Navajo Counties.

For the northern part of the state, the Grand Canyon, Flagstaff, Show Low, Snowflake, and Holbrook are in the vicinity or may have on-station thunderstorms; for the south, Tucson, Sierra Vista, Bisbee, and Benson. Phoenix is not looking to be on the path of evening storms, as the shift in the ridge and movement of the storms diminish the chance of convective activity in the metro area.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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